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Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline

Author

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  • K. Lisenkova
  • P. G. McGregor
  • N. Pappas
  • J. K. Swales
  • K. Turner
  • R. E. Wright

Abstract

Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. and Wright R. E. Scotland the grey: a linked demographic-computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis of the impact of population ageing and decline, Regional Studies. This paper links a multi-period economic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling framework with a demographic model to analyse the economic impact on Scotland of its projected ageing and declining population. The model quantifies the effect on aggregate economic variables, such as gross domestic product (GDP), employment and competitiveness, and also on individual sectors. With the principal demographic projections, the fall in population, and particularly working-age population, has a depressing impact on economic activity. By changing the demographic parameters, the impact of increasing net migration, a policy actively being pursued by the Scottish Government, is tracked. However, the required size of the annual net-migration needed to neutralize the adverse natural demographic changes is far higher than the current trends. [image omitted] Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. et Wright R. E. 'Ecosse la Grise': une analyse de l'impact du vieillissement et de la baisse de la population liant demographie et EGC, Regional Studies. Cet article etablit un lien entre un cadre economique multiperiodique de modelisation d'Equilibre General Calculable (EGC) et un modele demographique pour analyser l'impact economique sur l'Ecosse du vieillissement et de la baisse prevus de sa population. Le modele en quantifie l'effet sur les variables economiques agregees, telles que le PIB, l'emploi et la competitivite, ainsi que sur des secteurs particuliers. Compte tenu des principales previsions demographiques, la baisse de la population, et en particulier de la population en age de travailler, a un effet de depression de l'activite economique. En modifiant les parametres demographiques, nous suivons l'impact de l'augmentation de la migration nette, une politique qui est activement menee par l'Executif ecossais. Cependant, l'ampleur de la migration nette annuelle necessaire pour neutraliser les changements demographiques naturels prejudiciables est bien superieure aux tendances actuelles. Ecosse Modelisation EGC regionale Population vieillissante Migration Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. und Wright R. E. Graues Schottland: eine kombinierte demografische und CGE-Analyse der Auswirkungen von Alterung und Bevolkerungsruckgang, Regional Studies. In diesem Beitrag verbinden wir einen periodenubergreifenden okonomischen Modellierrahmen des berechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichts (CGE) mit einem demografischen Modell, um die wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen der prognostizierten Alterung und des Bevolkerungsruckgangs in Schottland zu analysieren. In dem Modell wird die Auswirkung auf kombinierte okonomische Variable wie Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Beschaftigungsniveau und Konkurrenzfahigkeit sowie auch auf einzelne Sektoren quantifiziert. Bei den wichtigsten demografischen Prognosen wirken sich der Bevolkerungsruckgang - insbesondere bei der Bevolkerung im arbeitsfahigen Alter - dampfend auf die Wirtschaftsaktivitat aus. Durch eine Anderung der demografischen Parameter untersuchen wir die Auswirkung einer erhohten Nettomigration, die als politisches Ziel von der schottischen Regierung aktiv verfolgt wird. Allerdings ist zur Neutralisierung der ungunstigen naturlichen Veranderungen in der Demografie eine weitaus umfangreichere jahrliche Nettomigration erforderlich als die der derzeitigen Trends. Schottland Regionalmodell des berechenbaren allgemeinen Gleichgewichts Alternde Bevolkerung Migration Lisenkova K., McGregor P. G., Pappas N., Swales J. K., Turner K. y Wright R. E. La anciana Escocia: analisis demografico segun el modelo CGE del impacto del envejecimiento y disminucion de la poblacion, Regional Studies. En este articulo vinculamos una estructura de un modelo de equilibrio general computable (CGE) de varios periodos con un modelo demografico para analizar el efecto economico en Escocia de su poblacion cada vez mas anciana y cada vez menos numerosa. Este modelo cuantifica el efecto en las variables economicas agregadas, tales como el PIB, el empleo y la competitividad asi como los sectores individuales. Con las principales proyecciones demograficas, la disminucion de poblacion, y especialmente de la poblacion en edad de trabajar, tiene un efecto depresivo en la actividad comercial. Al cambiar los parametros demograficos, hacemos un seguimiento del impacto de una creciente migracion neta, una politica que busca activamente el Gobierno escoces. Sin embargo, el tamano requerido de la migracion neta anual necesaria para neutralizar estos adversos cambios demograficos naturales es muy superior a las tendencias actuales. Escocia Modelo CGE regional Poblacion envejecida Migracion

Suggested Citation

  • K. Lisenkova & P. G. McGregor & N. Pappas & J. K. Swales & K. Turner & R. E. Wright, 2010. "Scotland the Grey: A Linked Demographic-Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis of the Impact of Population Ageing and Decline," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1351-1368.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:regstd:v:44:y:2010:i:10:p:1351-1368
    DOI: 10.1080/00343400701654228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harrigan, Frank & McGregor, Peter G. & Dourmashkin, Neil & Perman, Roger & Swales, Kim & Yin, Ya Ping, 1991. "AMOS : A macro-micro model of Scotland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 424-479, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michelle Gilmartin & David Learmouth & J Kim Swales & Peter McGregor & Karen Turner, 2013. "Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 45(4), pages 814-834, April.
    2. Lisenkova, Katerina & Mérette, Marcel & Wright, Robert, 2013. "Population ageing and the labour market: Modelling size and age-specific effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 981-989.
    3. Peter W. J. Batey, 2018. "What Can Demographic–Economic Modeling Tell Us about the Consequences of Regional Decline?," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 41(2), pages 256-281, March.
    4. Lin, Hsing-Chun & Lee, Huey-Lin & Chen, Po-Chi & Hsu, Sheng-Ming & Lin, Kuo-Jung & Lee, Duu-Hwa & Chang, Ching-Cheng & Hsu, Shih-Shun, 2013. "The Potential Crisis of Population Ageing and Low Fertility: GEMTEE Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium used in Population Forecasts and Analysis," Conference papers 332413, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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