IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/stl/stledp/2014-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends

Author

Listed:
  • Blum, Matthias
  • Greasley, David
  • Hanley, Nicholas
  • Kunnas, Jan
  • McLaughlin, Eoin
  • Oxley, Les
  • Warde, Paul

Abstract

Genuine Savings has emerged as a widely-used indicator of sustainable development. In this paper, we use long-term data stretching back to 1870 to undertake empirical tests of the relationship between Genuine Savings (GS) and future well-being for three countries: Britain, the USA and Germany. Our tests are based on an underlying theoretical relationship between GS and changes in the present value of future consumption. Based on both single country and panel results, we find evidence supporting the existence of a cointegrating (long run equilibrium) relationship between GS and future well-being, and fail to reject the basic theoretical result on the relationship between these two macroeconomic variables. This provides some support for the GS measure of weak sustainability. We also show the effects of modelling shocks, such as World War Two and the Great Depression.

Suggested Citation

  • Blum, Matthias & Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Empirical testing of genuine savings as an indicator of weak sustainability: a three-country analysis of long run trends," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2014-03, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2014-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/1893/19802
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bohringer, Christoph & Jochem, Patrick E.P., 2007. "Measuring the immeasurable -- A survey of sustainability indices," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-8, June.
    2. Dietz, Simon & Neumayer, Eric, 2007. "Weak and strong sustainability in the SEEA: Concepts and measurement," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(4), pages 617-626, March.
    3. Hamilton, Kirk & Clemens, Michael, 1999. "Genuine Savings Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 333-356, May.
    4. Malcolm Pemberton & David Ulph, 2001. "MeasuringIncome and Measuring Sustainability," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(1), pages 25-40, March.
    5. Susana Ferreira & Mirko Moro, 2010. "On the Use of Subjective Well-Being Data for Environmental Valuation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 46(3), pages 249-273, July.
    6. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    7. David Greasley & Les Oxley, 2010. "Clio And The Economist: Making Historians Count," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(5), pages 755-774, December.
    8. Kirk Hamilton & John Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    9. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2013. "Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-06, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    10. J. Bradford De Long and Barry Eichengreen., 1991. "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program," Economics Working Papers 91-184, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Allen, Robert C., 2014. "American Exceptionalism as a Problem in Global History," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(2), pages 309-350, June.
    12. Carter,Susan B. & Gartner,Scott Sigmund & Haines,Michael R. & Olmstead,Alan L. & Sutch,Richard & Wri (ed.), 2006. "The Historical Statistics of the United States 5 Volume Hardback Set," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817912, October.
    13. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    14. Arrow, Kenneth J. & Dasgupta, Partha & Goulder, Lawrence H. & Mumford, Kevin J. & Oleson, Kirsten, 2012. "Sustainability and the measurement of wealth," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(3), pages 317-353, June.
    15. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    16. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    17. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    18. Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
    19. Ferreira, Susana & Vincent, Jeffrey R, 2005. "Genuine Savings: Leading Indicator of Sustainable Development?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 737-754, April.
    20. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "Long-run growth empirics and new challenges for unified theory," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(28), pages 3973-3987, October.
    21. Kirk Hamilton & Cees Withagen, 2007. "Savings growth and the path of utility," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(2), pages 703-713, May.
    22. Mota, Rui Pedro & Domingos, Tiago & Martins, Victor, 2010. "Analysis of genuine saving and potential green net national income: Portugal, 1990-2005," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 1934-1942, August.
    23. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    24. Blum, Matthias & Hanley, Nicholas & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2013. "Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    25. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    26. Pezzey, J.C.V.John C. V., 2004. "One-sided sustainability tests with amenities, and changes in technology, trade and population," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 613-631, July.
    27. Chichilnisky, Graciela & Heal, Geoffrey & Beltratti, Andrea, 1995. "The Green Golden Rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 175-179, August.
    28. repec:bla:scandj:v:88:y:1986:i:1:p:141-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Martin L. Weitzman, 1997. "Sustainability and Technical Progress," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 1-13, March.
    30. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 171-188.
    31. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    32. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    33. Pearce, David W. & Atkinson, Giles D., 1993. "Capital theory and the measurement of sustainable development: an indicator of "weak" sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 103-108, October.
    34. Susana Ferreira & Kirk Hamilton & Jeffrey R. Vincent, 2008. "Comprehensive Wealth and Future Consumption: Accounting for Population Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 233-248, May.
    35. By DAVID GREASLEY & LES OXLEY, 1996. "Discontinuities in competitiveness: the impact of the First World War on British industry," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 49(1), pages 82-100, February.
    36. Mota, Rui Pedro & Domingos, Tiago, 2013. "Assessment of the theory of comprehensive national accounting with data for Portugal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 188-196.
    37. Pezzey, John C.V. & Hanley, Nick & Turner, Karen & Tinch, Dugald, 2006. "Comparing augmented sustainability measures for Scotland: Is there a mismatch?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 60-74, April.
    38. Oxley, Les & McAleer, Michael, 1993. "Econometric Issues in Macroeconomic Models with Generated Regressors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40.
    39. Dumke, Rolf H, 1990. "Reassessing the Wirtschaftswunder: Reconstruction and Postwar Growth in West Germany in an International Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(4), pages 451-491, Special I.
    40. Kirk Hamilton & John M. Hartwick, 2005. "Investing exhaustible resource rents and the path of consumption," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(2), pages 615-621, May.
    41. Eoin McLaughlin & Nick Hanley & David Greasley & Jan Kunnas & Les Oxley & Paul Warde, 2014. "Historical wealth accounts for Britain: progress and puzzles in measuring the sustainability of economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 44-69.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luke Mcgrath & Stephen Hynes & John Mchale, 2022. "Reassessing Ireland’s economic development through the lens of sustainable development [Sustainability and the measurement of wealth]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 399-422.
    2. Mubashir Qasim & Les Oxley & Eoin McLaughlin, 2020. "Genuine savings as a test of New Zealand weak sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 89-127, January.
    3. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    4. Natalia Zugravu-Soilita & Vincent Geronimi & Jessy Tsang & Christine Le Gargasson, 2020. "Promoting heritage for a sustainable development: the case of tourism in the island economies [Promouvoir le patrimoine pour un développement soutenable : le cas du tourisme dans les économies insu," Post-Print hal-03709168, HAL.
    5. Matthias Blum & Cristián Ducoing & Eoin McLaughlin, 2016. "Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2016-15, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    6. David Greasley & Jakob B. Madsen, 2017. "The Rise and Fall of Exceptional Australian Incomes Since 1800," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 264-290, November.
    7. Luke McGrath & Stephen Hynes & John McHale, 2022. "The Air we Breathe: Estimates of Air Pollution Extended Genuine Savings for Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(1), pages 161-188, March.
    8. Greasley, David & McLaughlin, Eoin & Hanley, Nick & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Australia: a land of missed opportunities?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 674-698, December.
    9. Mota, Rui Pedro & Cunha-e-Sá, Maria A., 2019. "The Role of Technological Progress in Testing Adjusted Net Savings: Evidence from OECD Countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mubashir Qasim & Les Oxley & Eoin McLaughlin, 2020. "Genuine savings as a test of New Zealand weak sustainability," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 89-127, January.
    2. Matthias Blum & Eoin McLaughlin & Nick Hanley, 2019. "Accounting for Sustainable Development over the Long‐Run: Lessons from Germany," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 20(4), pages 410-446, November.
    3. Nick Hanley & Louis Dupuy & Eoin McLaughlin, 2015. "Genuine Savings And Sustainability," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 779-806, September.
    4. Mota, Rui Pedro & Cunha-e-Sá, Maria A., 2019. "The Role of Technological Progress in Testing Adjusted Net Savings: Evidence from OECD Countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    5. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2014. "Testing genuine savings as a forward-looking indicator of future well-being over the (very) long-run," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 171-188.
    6. David Greasley & Nick Hanley & Eoin McLaughlin & Les Oxley, 2014. "The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2014-01, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    7. Blum, Matthias & Hanley, Nicholas & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2013. "Genuine savings and future well-being in Germany, 1850-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-13, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    8. McGrath, Luke & Hynes, Stephen & McHale, John, 2019. "Augmenting the World Bank's estimates: Ireland's genuine savings through boom and bust," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 1-1.
    9. Eoin McLaughlin & Cristián Ducoing & Les Oxley, 2024. "Tracing Sustainability in the Long Run: Genuine Savings Estimates 1850–2018," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Accounting for Environmental Public Goods: A National Accounts Perspective, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Luke McGrath & Stephen Hynes & John McHale, 2022. "The Air we Breathe: Estimates of Air Pollution Extended Genuine Savings for Europe," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(1), pages 161-188, March.
    11. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nick & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les, 2014. "The Emperor Has New Clothes: Empirical Tests of Mainstream Theories of Economic Growth," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-01, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Greasley, David & McLaughlin, Eoin & Hanley, Nick & Oxley, Les, 2017. "Australia: a land of missed opportunities?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 674-698, December.
    13. Mota, Rui Pedro & Domingos, Tiago, 2013. "Assessment of the theory of comprehensive national accounting with data for Portugal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 188-196.
    14. repec:sss:wpaper:201401 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. McLaughlin, Eoin & Ducoing, Cristián & Hanley, Nick, 2024. "Challenges of wealth-based sustainability metrics: A critical appraisal," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    16. Luke Mcgrath & Stephen Hynes & John Mchale, 2022. "Reassessing Ireland’s economic development through the lens of sustainable development [Sustainability and the measurement of wealth]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 399-422.
    17. Matthias Blum & Cristián Ducoing & Eoin McLaughlin, 2016. "Genuine Savings in developing and developed countries, 1900-2000," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2016-15, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    18. Greasley, David & Hanley, Nicholas & Kunnas, Jan & McLaughlin, Eoin & Oxley, Les & Warde, Paul, 2013. "Comprehensive investment and future well-being in the USA, 1869-2000," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2013-06, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    19. Koji Tokimatsu & Louis Dupuy & Nick Hanley, 2019. "Using Genuine Savings for Climate Policy Evaluation with an Integrated Assessment Model," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 72(1), pages 281-307, January.
    20. Louis Dupuy, 2012. "International Trade and Sustainability : A survey," Working Papers hal-00701426, HAL.
    21. Louis Dupuy, 2012. "International Trade and Sustainability: A survey," Larefi Working Papers 201201, Larefi, Université Bordeaux 4.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Weak sustainability; Genuine Savings; comprehensive investment; economic history; indicators; cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:stl:stledp:2014-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Liam Delaney (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/destiuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.