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Mobilite internationale : donnees sur les taux de sortie et de retour des Canadiens, 1982 a 2003

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  • Finnie, Ross

Abstract

Dans le present document, l'auteur tire parti des proprietes uniques de la Banque de donnees administratives longitudinales construite a partir des dossiers fiscaux pour mesurer les departs des Canadiens vers d'autres pays et examiner leurs profils de retour au cours de la periode allant de 1982 a 2003. Dans l'ensemble, environ 0,1 % (c.-a-d. un dixieme de 1 %) de la population adulte quitte le pays une annee donnee. Les taux de depart ont generalement suivi l'evolution de l'economie canadienne, mais les tendances ont manifestement ete attribuables egalement a d'autres facteurs, diminuant au cours des annees 1980 lorsque l'economie etait vigoureuse, amorcant une remontee vers la fin de la decennie avant que l'economie ne ralentisse en 1989, connaissant une hausse pendant la premiere partie des annees 1990 lorsque l'economie etait engluee dans une profonde recession, puis continuant d'augmenter jusqu'à la fin de 1997, annee ou une forte reprise etait en cours, pour baisser ensuite fortement depuis 2000, endiguant ce que de nombreuses personnes croyaient etre une inexorable tendance a la hausse, alors que les facteurs economiques etaient relativement stables. Les taux de depart diminuent avec l'age (sauf dans le groupe le plus jeune), sont moins eleves pour les couples sans enfants que pour les autres types de familles, sont eleves chez les habitants de la Colombie-Britannique, assez faibles chez les Quebecois francophones et tres eleves chez les anglophones dans cette province, sont legerement plus faibles pour les personnes touchant des prestations d'assurance-emploi (auparavant assurance-chomage) et sensiblement plus eleves pour celles aux niveaux de revenu eleves, et sont beaucoup plus eleves dans le cas des nouveaux immigrants. Les taux de depart des personnes aux niveaux de revenu plus eleves ont augmente durant les annees 1990, mais sont revenus a leurs niveaux d'avant les annees 1990 ces dernieres annees dans le cas des hommes mais non dans celui des femmes. Seulement une minorite des personnes qui quittent le pays reviennent un jour, soit environ 15 %, et ce, dans les cinq ans de leur depart. Toutefois, les taux de retour ont considerablement augmente depuis 2000, refletant dans une large mesure la tendance affichee par les taux de depart.

Suggested Citation

  • Finnie, Ross, 2006. "Mobilite internationale : donnees sur les taux de sortie et de retour des Canadiens, 1982 a 2003," Direction des études analytiques : documents de recherche 2006288f, Statistics Canada, Direction des études analytiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:stc:stcp3f:2006288f
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    File URL: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/fr/catalogue/11F0019M2006288
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ross Finnie, 2004. "Who moves? A logit model analysis of inter-provincial migration in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1759-1779.
    2. Gunderson, Morley & Melino, Angelo, 1990. "The Effects of Public Policy on Strike Duration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 8(3), pages 295-316, July.
    3. Finnie, Ross & Gray, David, 2002. "Earnings dynamics in Canada: an econometric analysis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(6), pages 763-800, December.
    4. Ross Finnie & Arthur Sweetman, 2003. "Poverty dynamics: empirical evidence for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(2), pages 291-325, May.
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    7. Ann Huff Stevens, 1995. "Long-Term Effects of Job Displacement: Evidence from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 5343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Helliwell, J.F., 1999. "Checking the Brain Drain: Evidence and Implications," Papers 99-3, Institute for Policy Analysis.
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    10. Heckman, James J. & Singer, Burton, 1984. "Econometric duration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 63-132.
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    Keywords

    Employment and unemployment; Labour; Labour mobility; turnover and work absences; Mobility and migration; Population and demography;
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