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Why has the Norwegian krone exchange rate been persistently weak?. A fully simultaneous VAR approach

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Abstract

We identify variables that help explain the persistent weakness of the Norwegian krone since 2016 within a fully simultaneous model of the underlying process driving the krone-euro exchange rate. In addition to a set of fundamental variables we consider non-traditional explanatory variables related to an exchange rate premium, inspired by several claims to insights made by market participants. The weak Norwegian krone seems to be largely attributable to factors related to the risk premium, such as the declining importance of petroleum in the Norwegian economy, a relative reduction in FDI in Norway and a fall in oil industry-specic share prices.

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  • Andreas Benedictow & Roger Hammersland, 2022. "Why has the Norwegian krone exchange rate been persistently weak?. A fully simultaneous VAR approach," Discussion Papers 981, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:981
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    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/en/nasjonalregnskap-og-konjunkturer/konjunkturer/artikler/why-has-the-norwegian-krone-exchange-rate-been-persistently-weak-a-fully-simultaneous-var-approach/_/attachment/inline/f1c08d6c-7a4b-4e14-93ec-f410095f9411:c9e0e487e483c7bd265aae1205aaab247a410634/DP981_web.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Boug, Pål & Brasch, Thomas von & Cappelen, Ådne & Hammersland, Roger & Hungnes, Håvard & Kolsrud, Dag & Skretting, Julia & Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond C., 2023. "Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; Foreign exchange rate premium; Cointegration; VAR-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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