IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/379.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?

Author

Listed:

Abstract

We analyse effects of various natural gas supply scenarios in a liberalised Western European energy market in 2010. Our starting point is the uncertainties about future natural gas exports from Russia and LNG-producing countries. Our results indicate that the average natural gas producer price in Western Europe is likely to be higher in 2010 than the average historical price the last 15 years, even in an optimistic supply scenario. We find only modest effects on both average natural gas producer prices and trade patterns of radical changes in supply volumes. However, there are significant country specific differences, primarily related to the reliance on Russian gas exports and the use of gas fired power generation

Suggested Citation

  • Eirik Lund Sagen & Finn Roar Aune, 2004. "The Future European Natural Gas Market - are lower gas prices attainable?," Discussion Papers 379, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:379
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp379.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek & Sverre Kittelsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2004. "Liberalizing the energy markets of Western Europe - a computable equilibrium model approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(19), pages 2137-2149.
    2. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1998. "Increased Competition on the Supply Side of the Western European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-18.
    3. Mads Greaker & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2004. "Explaining experience curves for LNG liquefaction costs: Competition matter more than learning," Discussion Papers 393, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gasmi, Farid & Oviedo, Juan Daniel, 2010. "Investment in transport infrastructure, regulation, and gas-gas competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 726-736, May.
    2. Gasmi, Farid & Oviedo, Juan Daniel, 2009. "Investment in Transport Infrastructure, and Gas-Gas Competition," TSE Working Papers 09-121, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hassan Hamie & Anis Hoayek & Hans Auer, 2020. "Modeling Post-Liberalized European Gas Market Concentration—A Game Theory Perspective," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-16, December.
    2. Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2009. "The Global Natural Gas Market: Will Transport Cost Reductions Lead to Lower Prices?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 17-40.
    3. Fontini, Fulvio & Paloscia, Lorenzo, 2007. "The impact of the new investments in combined cycle gas turbine power plants on the Italian electricity price," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4671-4676, September.
    4. Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
    5. Steven A. Gabriel & Supat Kiet & Jifang Zhuang, 2005. "A Mixed Complementarity-Based Equilibrium Model of Natural Gas Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 799-818, October.
    6. Gijsbert T.J. Zwart, 2009. "European Natural Gas Markets: Resource Constraints and Market Power," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 151-166, June.
    7. Rademeyer, Maryke C. & Minnitt, Richard C.A. & Falcon, Rosemary M.S., 2018. "Revisiting operating cost in resource extraction industries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 159-164.
    8. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    9. Orlov, Anton, 2015. "An assessment of optimal gas pricing in Russia: A CGE approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 492-506.
    10. Möst, Dominik & Perlwitz, Holger, 2009. "Prospects of gas supply until 2020 in Europe and its relevance for the power sector in the context of emission trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1510-1522.
    11. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier, 2012. "Regulation and electricity market integration: When trade introduces inefficiencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 529-535.
    12. Marina Tsygankova, 2007. "The Export of Russian Gas to Europe: Breaking Up the Monopoly of Gazprom," Energy and Environmental Modeling 2007 24000062, EcoMod.
    13. Anis Hoayek & Hassan Hamie & Hans Auer, 2020. "Modeling the Price Stability and Predictability of Post Liberalized Gas Markets Using the Theory of Information," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-20, June.
    14. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
    15. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz, 2008. "Analysis of the World Market for Steam Coal Using a Complementarity Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 818, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Gijsbert Zwart & S. Ikonnikova, 2010. "Reinforcing buyer power: Trade quotas and supply diversification in the EU natural gas market," CPB Discussion Paper 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. Gasmi, Farid & Oviedo, Juan Daniel, 2010. "Investment in transport infrastructure, regulation, and gas-gas competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 726-736, May.
    18. Frank Asche & Petter Osmundsen & Ragnar Tveterås, 2001. "Energy Taxes and Natural Gas Demand in EU-Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 516, CESifo.
    19. Anne Neumann & Juan Rosellón & Hannes Weigt, 2015. "Removing Cross-Border Capacity Bottlenecks in the European Natural Gas Market—A Proposed Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 149-181, March.
    20. Kristine Grimsrud & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Halvor B. Storrøsten & Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; energy modeling; natural gas; liberalized energy markets; LNG; Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:379. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: L Maasø (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.