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Assessing the cyclical implications of IFRS 9 – a recursive model

Author

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  • Abad, Jorge
  • Suarez, Javier

Abstract

This occasional paper has been prepared to complement the mandate of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) Task Force on the Financial Stability Implications of the Introduction of IFRS 9. It develops a recursive model to assess how different approaches to measuring credit impairment losses affect the average levels and dynamics of the impairment allowances associated with a bank’s loan portfolio. The application of this model to a portfolio of European corporate loans suggests that IFRS 9 would tend to concentrate the impact of credit losses on profits and losses (P/L) and Common Equity Tier 1(CET1) capital at the very beginning of deteriorating phases of the economic cycle, which raises concerns about the procyclical effects of IFRS 9.

Suggested Citation

  • Abad, Jorge & Suarez, Javier, 2017. "Assessing the cyclical implications of IFRS 9 – a recursive model," ESRB Occasional Paper Series 12, European Systemic Risk Board.
    • Handle: RePEc:srk:srkops:201712
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    File URL: https://www.esrb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/occasional/20170717_occasional_paper_12.en.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Fatouh, Mahmoud & Giansante, Simone, 2023. "The cyclicality of bank credit losses and capital ratios under expected loss model," Bank of England working papers 1013, Bank of England.
    2. Harry Huizinga & Luc Laeven, 2019. "The Procyclicality of Banking: Evidence from the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 496-527, September.
    3. Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2018. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," Research Technical Papers 16/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Kund, Arndt-Gerrit & Rugilo, Daniel, 2023. "Does IFRS 9 increase banks’ resilience?," Working Paper Series 2792, European Central Bank.
    5. Gaffney, Edward & McCann, Fergal, 2019. "The cyclicality in SICR: mortgage modelling under IFRS 9," ESRB Working Paper Series 92, European Systemic Risk Board.
    6. Francesco Bellandi, 2023. "IFRS 9 Single Impairment Model: Semantics and Circularity? A Study in the Airline Industry," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(12), pages 1-41, February.
    7. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 913, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Juselius, Mikael & Tarashev, Nikola A., 2022. "When uncertainty decouples expected and unexpected losses," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 4/2022, Bank of Finland.
    9. Mikael Juselius & Nikola Tarashev, 2020. "Forecasting expected and unexpected losses," BIS Working Papers 913, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Haselmann, Rainer & Krahnen, Jan Pieter & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2019. "Evaluierung gesamt- und finanzwirtschaftlicher Effekte der Reformen europäischer Finanzmarktregulierung im deutschen Finanzsektor seit der Finanzkrise: Zusammenfassung der wichtigsten Ergebnisse," SAFE Policy Reports 2, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    11. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2018. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer: the Czech example," ESRB Working Paper Series 82, European Systemic Risk Board.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Buesa, Alejandro & Población García, Francisco Javier & Tarancón, Javier, 2019. "Measuring the procyclicality of impairment accounting regimes: a comparison between IFRS 9 and US GAAP," Working Paper Series 2347, European Central Bank.
    14. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    15. Pérez Rodríguez, Pablo, 2021. "Accounting and auditing of credit loss estimates: The hard and the soft," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    16. Emil Ślązak & Magdalena Skwarzec, 2022. "The effects of IFRS 9 valuation model on cost of risk in commercial banks – the impact of COVID-19," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 53(1), pages 47-78.

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