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Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?

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  • Carlos Eduardo Gonçalves
  • Mauro Rodrigues

Abstract

The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper we provide evidence suggesting that there is not a robust statistical association between misalignment and growth for a broad panel of countries. Controlling for country fixed effects, time effects and initial GDP, a more depreciated currency is associated with higher growth. However, this positive association vanishes after controlling for the savings rate. We do not find such positive relationship either for large panel of countries or for a subsample of emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Eduardo Gonçalves & Mauro Rodrigues, 2017. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Growth: A Myth?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2017_07, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2017wpecon07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    2. Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011. "Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
    3. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
    4. Mr. Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited: The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 2010/058, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Glüzmann, Pablo Alfredo & Levy-Yeyati, Eduardo & Sturzenegger, Federico, 2012. "Exchange rate undervaluation and economic growth: Díaz Alejandro (1965) revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 666-672.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kirsneh Alemu Kebede, 2024. "The Effect of Availability of Foreign Exchange and Devaluation of BIRR on the Performance of Companies in Ethiopia (Instance of Sample Company)," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 99-117.
    3. Christopher Loewald, 2021. "Macro works a decisiontree approach to exchange rate policy," Working Papers 11009, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Jaromír Baxa & Michal Paulus, 2024. "Exchange rate misalignments, growth, and institutions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1705-1799, October.
    5. Erten, Bilge & Metzger, Martina, 2019. "The real exchange rate, structural change, and female labor force participation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 296-312.
    6. Abdul Jalil, 2021. "Exchange Rate Policy Must Seek Undervaluation!," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 85-91.
    7. Guilherme R. Magacho & John S. L. McCombie, 2020. "Structural change and cumulative causation: A Kaldorian approach," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 633-660, July.
    8. Esteban Javier Leguizamón & Pablo Alfredo Gluzmann, 2019. "Tipo de cambio real y crecimiento económico: Un análisis de robustez," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4162, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    9. Christopher Loewald, 2021. "Macro works applying integrated policy frameworks to South Africa," Working Papers 11021, South African Reserve Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real exchange rate; growth; misalignment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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