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Previdência e taxa de juros no Brasil

Author

Listed:
  • Brian Bolarinwa Ogundairo
  • Mauro Rodrigues

Abstract

O presente trabalho relaciona a alta taxa de juros real brasileira com o elevado gasto em previdência sob um regime de repartição. Para tanto, utilizamos uma versão padrão do modelo de gerações sobrepostas, com um regime de previdência misto (isto é, parte capitalização e parte repartição). O modelo é calibrado para a economia brasileira no período 2000-2014. Considera-se um estado estacionário inicial de modo a reproduzir a taxa de juros real média nesse período, sob um regime totalmente do tipo repartição. Simula-se então uma mudança para replicar os gastos em previdência do Chile, um país com um sistema majoritariamente do tipo capitalização. Em nossa especificação preferida, o modelo prevê uma queda de 1 ponto percentual na taxa de juros real (ao ano) de longo prazo. Isso corresponde a 18% do diferencial médio de juros entre Brasil e Chile no período 2000-2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Bolarinwa Ogundairo & Mauro Rodrigues, 2016. "Previdência e taxa de juros no Brasil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2016_11, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2016wpecon11
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real interest rate; pensions; Brazil; overlapping generations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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