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Fiscal stabilisation in the Euro-Area: A simulation exercise

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolas Carnot
  • Magdalena Kizior
  • Gilles Mourre

Abstract

This paper simulates a euro area stabilisation instrument that addresses some concerns often levied against such ideas. The simulation uses a 'double condition' over observed unemployment rates for triggering the payments to, as well as the contributions from, participating Member States. The functioning is symmetric between good and bad times and includes a form of experience rating as a further safeguard. The behaviour of the fund is assessed with simulations over the past three decades and with 'real time' simulations dating from the euro’s inception as a crucial robustness check. The simulations show that a significant and timely degree of stabilisation can be achieved, complementing national stabilisers without introducing permanent transfers or increasing overall debt. The paper also explores variants of the basic scheme including the introduction of a threshold for restricting the activity of the fund to large shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Carnot & Magdalena Kizior & Gilles Mourre, 2017. "Fiscal stabilisation in the Euro-Area: A simulation exercise," Working Papers CEB 17-025, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/259556
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Agathe Simon, 2022. "The impact of a European unemployment benefit scheme on labor supply and income distribution," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2022 14, Stata Users Group.
    2. Roel Beetsma & Simone Cima & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2021. "Fiscal Transfers without Moral Hazard?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 95-153, September.
    3. Francesco Spadafora, 2020. "Completing the Economic and Monetary Union: Wisdom Come Late?," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 6(3), pages 379-409, November.
    4. Doris Prammer & Lukas Reiss, 2018. "How to increase fiscal stabilization at the euro area level?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 111-131.
    5. Beetsma, Roel & Burgoon, Brian & Nicoli, Francesco, 2023. "Is european attachment sufficiently strong to support an EU fiscal capacity: Evidence from a conjoint experiment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Dolls, Mathias, 2024. "An unemployment re-insurance scheme for the eurozone? Stabilizing and redistributive effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    7. Nicoletta Batini & Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini, 2020. "Reducing risk while sharing it: a fiscal recipe for the EU at the time of COVID-19," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-04090084, HAL.
    8. Francesco Spadafora, 2019. "European integration in the time of mistrust," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 512, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    9. Cláudia Braz & João Amador & João Valle e Azevedo, 2019. "The Deepening of the Economic and Monetary Union," Working Papers o201901, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. Nicoli, Francesco & van der Duin, David & Burgoon, Brian, 2023. "Which Energy Security Union? An experiment on public preferences for energy union alternatives in 5 western European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    11. Esther Gordo & Ivan Kataryniuk, 2019. "Towards a more resilient euro area," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 106-114.
    12. Xavier Jara Tamayo, Holguer & Simon, Agathe, 2021. "The income protection role of an EMU-wide unemployment insurance system: the case of atypical workers," Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis Working Paper Series CEMPA6/21, Centre for Microsimulation and Policy Analysis at the Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    13. Olga Francová & Ermal Hitaj & John Goossen & Robert Kraemer & Andreja Lenarčič & Georgios Palaiodimos, 2021. "EU fiscal rules: reform considerations," Discussion Papers 17, European Stability Mechanism, revised 25 Oct 2021.
    14. Beetsma, Roel & Cimadomo, Jacopo & van Spronsen, Josha, 2024. "One scheme fits all: A central fiscal capacity for the EMU targeting eurozone, national and regional shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    15. Ralph Schmitt-Nilson, 2018. "Enhanced Fiscal Integration in the EMU? Proceedings of the joint workshop, organised by the European Commission, the European Stability Mechanism and the German Council of Economic Experts on 19 Septe," European Economy - Discussion Papers 082, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Roel Beetsma & Brian Burgoon & Francesco Nicoli & Anniek de Ruijter & Frank Vandenbroucke, 2022. "What kind of EU fiscal capacity? Evidence from a randomized survey experiment in five European countries in times of corona," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(111), pages 411-459.
    17. Giovannini, Alessandro & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Public and private risk sharing: friends or foes? The interplay between different forms of risk sharing," Occasional Paper Series 295, European Central Bank.
    18. Capella-Ramos, João & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Leiner-Killinger, Nadine, 2020. "Fiscal transfers and economic convergence," Occasional Paper Series 252, European Central Bank.
    19. Florian Misch & Martin Rey, 2022. "The case for a loan-based euro area stability fund," Discussion Papers 20, European Stability Mechanism, revised 05 May 2022.
    20. Cimadomo, Jacopo & Gordo Mora, Esther & Palazzo, Alessandra Anna, 2022. "Enhancing private and public risk sharing: lessons from the literature and reflections on the COVID-19 crisis," Occasional Paper Series 306, European Central Bank.
    21. Massimo Bordignon & Angelo Stefano Baglioni, 2018. "The Future of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(02), pages 32-37, August.
    22. repec:ces:ifodic:v:16:y:2018:i:2:p:50000000002759 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Jan Priewe, 2021. "Reforming the Fiscal Rulebook for the Euro Area – and the Challenge of Old and New Public Debt," IMK Studies 72-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic stabilisation; risk-sharing; income smoothing; fiscal stabilisers; transfer scheme;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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