IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/smu/ecowpa/1507.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Analysis of Trade-Related Redistribution and the Political Viability of Free Trade

Author

Listed:
  • James Lake

    (Southern Methodist University)

  • Daniel L. Millimet

    (Southern Methodist University)

Abstract

Even if free trade creates net welfare gains for a country as a whole, the associated distributional implications can undermine the political viability of free trade. We show that trade-related redistribution -- as presently constituted -- modestly increases the political viability of free trade in the US. We do so by assessing the causal effect of expected redistribution associated with the US Trade Adjustment Assistance program on US Congressional voting behavior on eleven Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) between 2003 and 2011. We find that a one standard deviation increase in expected redistribution leads to an average increase in the probability of voting in favor of an FTA of 1.8 percentage points. Although this is a modest impact on average, we find significant heterogeneities; in particular, the effect is larger when a representative's constituents are more at risk or the representative faces greater re-election risk.

Suggested Citation

  • James Lake & Daniel L. Millimet, 2015. "An Empirical Analysis of Trade-Related Redistribution and the Political Viability of Free Trade," Departmental Working Papers 1507, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:smu:ecowpa:1507
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ftp1.economics.smu.edu/WorkingPapers/2015/LAKE/LAKE-2015-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paola Conconi & Giovanni Facchini & Maurizio Zanardi, 2012. "Fast-Track Authority and International Trade Negotiations," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 146-189, August.
    2. Brander, James A. & Spencer, Barbara J., 1994. "Trade adjustment assistance : Welfare and incentive effects of payments to displaced workers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 239-261, May.
    3. Conconi, Paola & Facchini, Giovanni & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2014. "Policymakers' horizon and trade reforms: The protectionist effect of elections," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 102-118.
    4. Peter Z. Schochet & Ronald D'Amico & Jillian Berk & Sarah Dolfin & Nathan Wozny, "undated". "Estimated Impacts for Participants in the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) Program Under the 2002 Amendments," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 582d8723f6884d4eb7a3f95a4, Mathematica Policy Research.
    5. Chamberlain, Gary, 1984. "Panel data," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1247-1318, Elsevier.
    6. Mueller, Andreas, 2010. "On-the-job search and wage dispersion: New evidence from time use data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 124-127, November.
    7. Lake, James, 2015. "Revisiting the link between PAC contributions and lobbying expenditures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 86-101.
    8. Bombardini, Matilde & Trebbi, Francesco, 2012. "Competition and political organization: Together or alone in lobbying for trade policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 18-26.
    9. Feenstra, Robert C. & Lewis, Tracy R., 1994. "Trade adjustment assistance and Pareto gains from trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3-4), pages 201-222, May.
    10. Grossman, Gene M & Helpman, Elhanan, 1994. "Protection for Sale," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 833-850, September.
    11. Magee, Christopher, 2001. "Administered protection for workers: an analysis of the trade adjustment assistance program," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 105-125, February.
    12. Tripathi Micky & Ansolabehere Stephen & Jr James M. Snyder, 2002. "Are PAC Contributions and Lobbying Linked? New Evidence from the 1995 Lobby Disclosure Act," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-26, August.
    13. Leslie Stein, 1982. "Trade Adjustment Assistance as a Means of Achieving Improved Resource Allocation Through Freer Trade: An Analysis of Policies for Aiding the Import‐injured in the U.S., Canada and Australia," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 243-255, July.
    14. Jooyoun Park, 2012. "Does Occupational Training by the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program Really Help Reemployment? Success Measured as Occupation Matching," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 999-1016, November.
    15. Sarah Dolfin & Peter Z. Schochet, 2012. "The Benefits and Costs of the Trade Adjustment Assistance (TAA) Program Under the 2002 Amendments," Mathematica Policy Research Reports af4ef9bb2d3a4fbba1e3a3cf8, Mathematica Policy Research.
    16. Im Hyejoon & Sung Hankyoung, 2011. "Empirical Analyses of U.S. Congressional Voting on Recent FTA," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-37, December.
    17. repec:bla:reviec:v:8:y:2000:i:3:p:373-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:mpr:mprres:6988 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Carl Davidson & Steven J. Matusz, 2005. "Trade and Turnover: Theory and Evidence," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 861-880, November.
    20. Dixit, Avinash & Norman, Victor, 1986. "Gains from trade without lump-sum compensation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 111-122, August.
    21. Paola Conconi & Giovanni Facchini & Max F. Steinhardt & Maurizio Zanardi, 2020. "The political economy of trade and migration: Evidence from the U.S. Congress," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 250-278, July.
    22. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    23. C. Michael Aho & Thomas O. Bayard, 1984. "Costs and Benefits of Trade Adjustment Assistance," NBER Chapters, in: The Structure and Evolution of Recent US Trade Policy, pages 153-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Carl Davidson & Steven J. Matusz, 2006. "Trade Liberalization And Compensation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 723-747, August.
    25. Bruce A. Blonigen & David N. Figlio, 2019. "Voting for Protection: Does Direct Foreign Investment Influence Legislator Behavior?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 13, pages 447-471, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    26. Hyejoon Im & Hankyoung Sun, 2008. "Empirical Analyses of U.S. Congressional Voting on Recent FTA Bills," Governance Working Papers 22992, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    27. Christopher Sean Patrick Magee, 2010. "Would NAFTA have been Approved by the House of Representatives under President Bush? Presidents, Parties, and Trade Policy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(2), pages 382-395, May.
    28. repec:mpr:mprres:7736 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Hatice Ozer Balli & Bent Sørensen, 2013. "Interaction effects in econometrics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 583-603, August.
    30. Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Globalization and the Perceptions of American Workers," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 109, April.
    31. Erhan Artuç & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2010. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 1008-1045, June.
    32. Austen-Smith, David, 1995. "Campaign Contributions and Access," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(3), pages 566-581, September.
    33. Daniel L. Smith & Jeffrey B. Wenger, 2013. "State Unemployment Insurance Trust Solvency and Benefit Generosity," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(3), pages 536-553, June.
    34. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    35. Krueger, Alan B. & Mueller, Andreas, 2010. "Job search and unemployment insurance: New evidence from time use data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3-4), pages 298-307, April.
    36. Philip Hans Franses & J.S. Cramer, 2010. "On the number of categories in an ordered regression model," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 64(1), pages 125-128, February.
    37. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro, 2015. "Estimates of the Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTA," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(1), pages 1-44.
    38. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    39. C. Fred Bergsten, 2005. "The United States and the World Economy: Foreign Economic Policy for the Next Decade," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3802, April.
    40. Baldwin, Robert E & Magee, Christopher S, 2000. "Is Trade Policy for Sale? Congressional Voting on Recent Trade Bills," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 79-101, October.
    41. Sarah Dolfin & Jillian Berk, "undated". "National Evaluation of the Trade Adjustment Assistance Program: Characteristics of Workers Eligible Under the 2002 TAA Program and Their Early Program Experiences," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 100eb8ca0fb944d18c859f715, Mathematica Policy Research.
    42. John Romalis, 2007. "NAFTA's and CUSFTA's Impact on International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 416-435, August.
    43. Furusawa, Taiji & Lai, Edwin L. -C., 1999. "Adjustment costs and gradual trade liberalization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 333-361, December.
    44. James Proudman & Stephen Redding, 2000. "Evolving Patterns of International Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 373-396, August.
    45. Jagdish Bhagwati, 1989. "Protectionism," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262521504, December.
    46. Paola Conconi & Giovanni Facchini & Max F. Steinhardt & Maurizio Zanardi, 2012. "The Political Economy of Trade and Migration: Evidence from the US Congress: CEPR Discussion Paper 9270," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-49, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    47. repec:mpr:mprres:7735 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    49. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Consumption Smoothing Benefits of Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 192-205, March.
    50. Lori G. Kletzer, 1998. "Job Displacement," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 115-136, Winter.
    51. Davidson, Carl & Matusz, Steven J. & Nelson, Douglas R., 2007. "Can compensation save free trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 167-186, March.
    52. Hummels, David & Ishii, Jun & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "The nature and growth of vertical specialization in world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 75-96, June.
    53. Chappell, Henry W, Jr, 1982. "Campaign Contributions and Congressional Voting: A Simultaneous Probit-Tobit Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(1), pages 77-83, February.
    54. repec:mpr:mprres:7737 is not listed on IDEAS
    55. Lori G. Kletzer, 2004. "Trade‐related Job Loss and Wage Insurance: a Synthetic Review," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 724-748, November.
    56. Tripathi, Micky & Ansolabehere, Stephen & Snyder, James M., 2002. "Are PAC Contributions and Lobbying Linked? New Evidence from the 1995 Lobby Disclosure Act," Business and Politics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 131-155, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Beckman, Jayson & Ivanic, Maros & Shaik, Saleem, 2022. "How Bilateral Trade Deals Get in the Way of Multilateral Agreements," Conference papers 333437, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Lake, James & Nie, Jun, 2023. "The 2020 US Presidential election and Trump’s wars on trade and health insurance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Sanjay Jain, 2017. "Worker retraining and transfer payments: The political economy of social protection," WIDER Working Paper Series 044, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Raymond Robertson, 2018. "Effects of regulating international trade on firms and workers," IZA World of Labor, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA), pages 439-439, June.
    5. Giovanni Facchini & Tommaso Frattini & Cora Signorotto, 2013. "Mind What Your Voters Read: Media Exposure and International Economic Policy Making," Development Working Papers 358, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    6. Cole, Matthew T. & Lake, James & Zissimos, Ben, 2021. "Contesting an international trade agreement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Sean D. Ehrlich & Christopher Gahagan, 2023. "The Multisided Threat to Free Trade: Protectionism and Fair Trade During Increasing Populism," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 11(1), pages 223-236.
    8. Daryna Grechyna, 2021. "Trade openness and political distortions," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 644-663, November.
    9. Jakob Engel & Deeksha Kokas & Gladys Lopez-Acevedo & Maryla Maliszewska, 2021. "The Distributional Impacts of Trade," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 35552.
    10. Jain, Sanjay & Majumdar, Sumon, 2016. "State capacity, redistributive compensation and the political economy of economic policy reform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 462-473.
    11. James Lake & Jun Nie, 2022. "The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War," CESifo Working Paper Series 9669, CESifo.
    12. Lake, James, 2015. "Revisiting the link between PAC contributions and lobbying expenditures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 86-101.
    13. Sanjay Jain, 2017. "Worker retraining and transfer payments: The political economy of social protection," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-44, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:smu:ecowpa:1405 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lake, James, 2015. "Revisiting the link between PAC contributions and lobbying expenditures," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 86-101.
    3. Brian Beach & John Lopresti, 2019. "Losing By Less? Import Competition, Unemployment Insurance Generosity, And Crime," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1163-1181, April.
    4. Zareh Asatryan & Sebastian Braun & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva & Catia Montagna, 2014. "Compensating the Losers of Free Trade. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 63," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47260.
    5. Che, Yi & Lu, Yi & Pierce, Justin R. & Schott, Peter K. & Tao, Zhigang, 2022. "Did trade liberalization with China influence US elections?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Paola Conconi & Giovanni Facchini & Max F. Steinhardt & Maurizio Zanardi, 2020. "The political economy of trade and migration: Evidence from the U.S. Congress," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 250-278, July.
    7. Wolfgang Lechthaler & Mariya Mileva, 2021. "Smoothing the adjustment to trade liberalization," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 903-946, November.
    8. Yi Che & Yi Lu & Justin R. Pierce & Peter K. Schott & Zhigang Tao, 2016. "Does Trade Liberalization with China Influence U.S. Elections?," NBER Working Papers 22178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ben G. Li & Yi Lu & Pasquale Sgro & Xing Xu, 2020. "Trump, China, and the Republicans," Discussion Papers 2020-26, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    10. David Hummels & Jakob R. Munch & Chong Xiang, 2018. "Offshoring and Labor Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(3), pages 981-1028, September.
    11. Giovanni Facchini & Tommaso Frattini & Cora Signorotto, 2013. "Mind What Your Voters Read: Media Exposure and International Economic Policy Making," Development Working Papers 358, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    12. Michael Blanga-Gubbay & Paola Conconi & Mathieu Parenti, 2020. "Globalization for Sale," CESifo Working Paper Series 8239, CESifo.
    13. Artuc, Erhan & Porto, Guido & Rijkers, Bob, 2019. "Trading off the income gains and the inequality costs of trade policy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 1-45.
    14. Bombardini, Matilde & Trebbi, Francesco, 2011. "Votes or money? Theory and evidence from the US Congress," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 587-611, August.
    15. Falvey, Rod & Greenaway, David & Silva, Joana, 2010. "Trade liberalisation and human capital adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 230-239, July.
    16. Lake, James & Nie, Jun, 2023. "The 2020 US Presidential election and Trump’s wars on trade and health insurance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Paola Conconi & Giovanni Facchini & Max F. Steinhardt & Maurizio Zanardi, 2012. "The Political Economy of Trade and Migration: Evidence from the US Congress: CEPR Discussion Paper 9270," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-49, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Benjamin G. Hyman, 2022. "Can Displaced Labor Be Retrained? Evidence from Quasi-Random Assignment to Trade Adjustment Assistance," Working Papers 22-05, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    19. Davidson, Carl & Matusz, Steven J. & Nelson, Douglas R., 2007. "Can compensation save free trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 167-186, March.
    20. Magee, Christopher, 2003. "Endogenous tariffs and trade adjustment assistance," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 203-222, May.
    21. Ludema, Rodney D & Mayda, Anna Maria & Mishra, Prachi, 2010. "Protection for Free? The Political Economy of U.S. Tariff Suspensions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Free Trade Agreements; Trade Adjustment Assistance; Political Economy; Redistribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:smu:ecowpa:1507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ömer Özak (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.smu.edu/economics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.