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Modified Fast Double Sieve Bootstraps for ADF Tests

Author

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  • Patrick Richard

    (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke)

Abstract

This paper studies the finite sample performance of the sieve bootstrap augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test. It is well known that this test’s accuracy in terms of rejection probability under the null depends greatly on the underlying DGP. Through extensive simulations, we find that it also depends on the numbers of lags employed in the bootstrap DGP and in the bootstrap ADF regression. Based on this finding and using some well established theoretical results, we propose a simple modification that significantly improves the test’s accuracy. We also introduce different versions of the fast double bootstrap, each modified according to the same theoretical basis. According to our simulations, these new testing procedures have lower error in rejection probability under the null while retaining good power.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Richard, 2008. "Modified Fast Double Sieve Bootstraps for ADF Tests," Cahiers de recherche 08-17, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    • Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:08-17
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    File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-0817.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franz C. Palm & Stephan Smeekes & Jean‐Pierre Urbain, 2008. "Bootstrap Unit‐Root Tests: Comparison and Extensions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 371-401, March.
    2. Joon Y. Park, 2003. "Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1845-1895, November.
    3. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Y. Park, 2003. "A Sieve Bootstrap For The Test Of A Unit Root," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 379-400, July.
    4. Zacharias Psaradakis, 2001. "Bootstrap Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root in the Presence of Weakly Dependent Errors," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 577-594, September.
    5. Paparoditis, Efstathios & Politis, Dimitris N., 2005. "Bootstrapping Unit Root Tests for Autoregressive Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 545-553, June.
    6. Patrick Richard, 2007. "ARMA Sieve bootstrap unit root tests," Cahiers de recherche 07-05, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke, revised Jul 2009.
    7. Galbraith, JohnW. & Zinde-Walsh, Victoria, 1999. "On the distributions of Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistics in processes with moving average components," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 25-47, November.
    8. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    9. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 2007. "Improving the reliability of bootstrap tests with the fast double bootstrap," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3259-3281, April.
    10. Yoosoon Chang & Joon Park, 2002. "On The Asymptotics Of Adf Tests For Unit Roots," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 431-447.
    11. James G. MacKinnon, 2006. "Applications Of The Fast Double Bootstrap," Working Paper 1023, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    12. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    13. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    14. Park, Joon Y., 2002. "An Invariance Principle For Sieve Bootstrap In Time Series," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 469-490, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kascha, Christian & Trenkler, Carsten, 2011. "Bootstrapping the likelihood ratio cointegration test in error correction models with unknown lag order," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1008-1017, February.
    2. Stephan Smeekes, 2013. "Detrending Bootstrap Unit Root Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(8), pages 869-891, November.
    3. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Peter C. B. Phillips & Stephan Smeekes & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2015. "Lag Length Selection for Unit Root Tests in the Presence of Nonstationary Volatility," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 512-536, April.
    4. Davidson, Russell & Trokić, Mirza, 2020. "The fast iterated bootstrap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 451-475.
    5. Martin C. Arnold & Thilo Reinschlussel, 2024. "Bootstrap Adaptive Lasso Solution Path Unit Root Tests," Papers 2409.07859, arXiv.org.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARMA; bias correction; GLS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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