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The Error Correction Model as a Test for Cointegration

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  • Athina Kanioura
  • Paul Turner

Abstract

In this paper we generate critical values for a test for cointegration based on the joint significance of the levels terms in an error correction equation. We show that the appropriate critical values are higher than those derived from the standard F-distribution. We compare the power properties of this test with those of the Engle-Granger test and Kremers et al´s t-test based on the t-statistic from an error correction equation. The F-test has higher power than the Engle-Granger test but lower power than the t-form of the error correction test. However, the F-form of the test has the advantage that its distribution is independent of the parameters of the problem being considered. Finally, we consider a test for cointegration between UK and US interest rates. We show that the F-test rejects the null of no cointegration between these variables although the Engle-Granger test fails to do so.

Suggested Citation

  • Athina Kanioura & Paul Turner, 2003. "The Error Correction Model as a Test for Cointegration," Working Papers 2003001, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2003001
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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/06/31/70/SERP2003001.pdf
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    File URL: http://www.shef.ac.uk/content/1/c6/06/31/70/SERP2003001.pdf
    File Function: Revised version, 2003
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    2. Williams, D, 1978. "Estimating in Levels or First Differences: A Defence of the Method Used for Certain Demand-for-Money Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 564-568, September.
    3. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    4. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    5. Davidson, James E H, et al, 1978. "Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time-Series Relationship between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(352), pages 661-692, December.
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    7. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
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    Cited by:

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    5. Chimaliro, Aubrey Victor, 2018. "Analysis of main determinants of soya bean price volatility in Malawi," Research Theses 334743, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    6. PHIRI Andrew & NYONI Bothwell, 2016. "Re-Visting The Electricity-Growth Nexus In South Africa," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 97-111, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cointegration; error correction.;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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