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Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France

Author

Listed:
  • Marc Poumadere
  • Claire Mays
  • Gabriela Pfeifle
  • Athanasios T. Vafeidis

Abstract

Risk policy and public attitudes appear disconnected from research predicting warmer climate partially due to human activity. To step out of this stalled situation, a worst case scenario of a 5-6m sea level rise (SLR) induced by the collapse of the WAIS and occurring during the period 2030-2130 is constructed and applied to the Rhone delta. Physical and socio-economic scenarios developed with data from the Rhone delta context are developed and submitted to stakeholders for a day-long workshop. Group process analysis shows a high level of trust and cooperation mobilized to face the 5-6m SLR issue, despite potentially diverging interests. Two sets of recommendations stem from the scenario workshop. A conservative "wait and see" option is decided when the risk of the WAIS collapse is announced in 2030. After WAIS collapse generates an effective 1m SLR rise by 2050, decisions are taken for total retreat and rendering of the Rhone delta to its hydrological function. The transposition of these results into present times policy decisions could be considered. The methodology developed here could be applied to other risk objects and situations, and serve for policy exercises and crisis prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Poumadere & Claire Mays & Gabriela Pfeifle & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2005. "Worst Case Scenario and Stakeholder Group Decision: A 5-6 Meter Sea Level Rise in the Rhone Delta, France," Working Papers FNU-76, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgc:wpaper:76
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    File URL: http://www.fnu.zmaw.de/fileadmin/fnu-files/publication/working-papers/waiscamarguewp.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paul Slovic & Melissa L. Finucane & Ellen Peters & Donald G. MacGregor, 2004. "Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(2), pages 311-322, April.
    2. Didier Blanchet, 1996. "Présentation générale," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 291(1), pages 3-11.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferenc L. Toth & Eva Hizsnyik, 2005. "Managing The Inconceivable: Participatory Assessments Of Impacts And Responses To Extreme Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-74, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sea level rise; France; Camargue; scenario; extreme climate; stakeholder workshop;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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