IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sfu/sfudps/dp20-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Why a pandemic recession should boost asset prices (. . . according to standard economic theory)

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Economic recessions are traditionally associated with asset price declines, and recoveries with asset price booms. Standard asset pricing models make sense of this: during a recession, dividends are low and the marginal value of wealth is high, causing low asset prices. Here, I develop a simple model which shows that this is not true during a recession caused by consumption restrictions, such as those seen during the 2020 pandemic: the restrictions drive the marginal value of wealth down, and thereby drive asset prices up, to an extent that tends to overwhelm the effect of low dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Herrenbrueck, 2020. "Why a pandemic recession should boost asset prices (. . . according to standard economic theory)," Discussion Papers dp20-07, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp20-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sfu.ca/repec-econ/sfu/sfudps/dp20-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Stock market

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buss, Adrian, 2013. "Capital controls and international financial stability: a dynamic general equilibrium analysis in incomplete markets," Working Paper Series 1578, European Central Bank.
    2. Wang, Xiao-Qing & Wu, Tong & Zhong, Huaming & Su, Chi-Wei, 2023. "Bubble behaviors in nickel price: What roles do geopolitical risk and speculation play?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Smoluk, H. J. & Neveu, Raymond P., 2002. "Consumption and asset prices: An analysis across income groups," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 47-62.
    4. Yariv, Leeat & Jackson, Matthew O., 2018. "The Non-Existence of Representative Agents," CEPR Discussion Papers 13397, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Stavros Panageas & Nicolae Garleanu, 2008. "Yooung, Old, Conservative and Bold: The implications of finite lives and heterogeneity for asset prices," 2008 Meeting Papers 409, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Emilio Espino & Thomas Hintermaier, 2009. "Asset trading volume in a production economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 39(2), pages 231-258, May.
    7. Jie Ning & Matthew J. Sobel, 2018. "Production and Capacity Management with Internal Financing," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 147-160, February.
    8. Gollier, Christian, 2002. "Time Horizon and the Discount Rate," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 463-473, December.
    9. Benjamin Eden, 2004. "Substitution and Risk Aversion: Is Risk Aversion Important for Understanding Asset Prices?," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0422, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    10. Siddiqi, Hammad, 2015. "Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic: A Unified Explanation for Equity Puzzles," MPRA Paper 68729, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Thomas Delcey, 2019. "Samuelson vs Fama on the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Point of View of Expertise [Samuelson vs Fama sur l’efficience informationnelle des marchés financiers : le point de vue de l’expertise]," Post-Print hal-01618347, HAL.
    12. Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Market Efficiency and Crises:Don’t Throw the Baby out with the Bathwater," Bankers, Markets & Investors, ESKA Publishing, issue 139, pages 20-26, November-.
    13. Chia-Lin Chang & Jukka Ilomäki & Hannu Laurila & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-18, September.
    14. Carmich[ae]l, Benoit & Samson, Lucie, 2005. "Consumption growth as a risk factor? Evidence from Canadian financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 83-101, February.
    15. Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2021. "The economics of the financial market for volatility trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    16. Michal Pakos & Hui Chen, 2008. "Asset Pricing with Uncertainty About the Long Run," 2008 Meeting Papers 295, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Kartono, Agus & Solekha, Siti & Sumaryada, Tony & Irmansyah,, 2021. "Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using non-linear Schrödinger equations with economic fundamental parameters," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Kevin E. Beaubrun-Diant & Julien Matheron, 2008. "Rentabilités d'actifs et fluctuations économiques : une perspective d'équilibre général dynamique et stochastique," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 35-63.
    19. Giorgio Canarella & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2022. "Globalization, long memory, and real interest rate convergence: a historical perspective," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2331-2355, November.
    20. René Garcia & Richard Luger & Eric Renault, 2000. "Asymmetric Smiles, Leverage Effects and Structural Parameters," Working Papers 2000-57, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 pandemic; social distancing; asset prices; stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp20-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Working Paper Coordinator (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/desfuca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.