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Consumption and Income Expectations during Covid-19

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Abstract

Using a survey of Italian households administered in November 2021, we study the effect of microeconomic and macroeconomic expectations (about the health crisis and fear of contagion among others) on consumption expectations in 2022. The survey elicits individual-level indicators of income and consumption expectations, distinguishing between consumption at home, away from home, online and total. We find that expected household income and expected aggregate GDP growth are strongly related to consumption expectations; income risk is positively associated with expected consumption growth for richer households, confirming the presence of a precautionary saving motive.

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  • Giovanni Immordino & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero, 2022. "Consumption and Income Expectations during Covid-19," CSEF Working Papers 647, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:sef:csefwp:647
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    1. Natalie Cox & Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel & Joseph Vavra & Arlene Wong & Diana Farrell & Fiona Greig & Erica Deadman, 2020. "Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 35-82.
    2. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
    3. Asger Lau Andersen & Emil Toft Hansen & Niels Johannesen & Adam Sheridan, 2022. "Consumer responses to the COVID‐19 crisis: evidence from bank account transaction data," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(4), pages 905-929, October.
    4. Olivier Armantier & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2017. "An overview of the Survey of Consumer Expectations," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 23-2, pages 51-72.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 645-677, March.
    6. Charles F. Manski, 2004. "Measuring Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(5), pages 1329-1376, September.
    7. Giustinelli, Pamela & Manski, Charles F. & Molinari, Francesca, 2022. "Tail and center rounding of probabilistic expectations in the Health and Retirement Study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 265-281.
    8. Giovanni Immordino & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2022. "Fear of COVID‐19 contagion and consumption: Evidence from a survey of Italian households," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 496-507, March.
    9. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Maarten van Rooij, 2020. "Consumption Uncertainty and Precautionary Saving," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 148-161, March.
    10. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    11. Bruno P. Carvalho & Susana Peralta & João Pereira dos Santos, 2022. "Regional and sectorial impacts of the Covid‐19 crisis: Evidence from electronic payments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(3), pages 757-798, June.
    12. Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2017. "The Economics of Consumption: Theory and Evidence," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199383153.
    13. Bounie, David & Camara, Youssouf & Galbraith, John W., 2023. "Consumer mobility and expenditure during the COVID-19 containments: Evidence from French transaction data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption Expectations; Income Expectations; Covid-19 Crisis.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving

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