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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Real Sector: a Sectoral Analysis of CEE Countries

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  • Przemek Kowalski
  • Wojciech Paczynski
  • Lukasz Rawdanowicz

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of exchange rate regimes on the real sector. While most studies in this field have so far concentrated on aggregate variables, we pursue a sectoral approach distinguishing between the tradable and nontradable sectors. Firstly, we present a survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. This demonstrates that evaluations of exchange rate regimes and their impact on the real economy are largely dependant on specific assumptions concerning, in particular, the parameters of a utility function, the nature of the price adjustment process and the characteristics of analysed shocks. Secondly, we conduct an empirical analysis of the behaviour of the tradable and nontradable sectors under different exchange rate regimes for seven Central and Eastern European countries. We find no firm evidence of a differential impact of given exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of output and prices in the two sectors. We proffer a conceptual and technical interpretation of this.

Suggested Citation

  • Przemek Kowalski & Wojciech Paczynski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Real Sector: a Sectoral Analysis of CEE Countries," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0248, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:sec:cnstan:0248
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    1. Volodymyr Hryvniv & Malgorzata Jakubiak & Mykyta Mykhaylychenko & Oksana Novoseletska & Wojciech Paczynski & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2005. "Sustaining Low Inflation in Ukraine," CASE Network Reports 0063, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    2. Przemek Kowalski, 2003. "Nominal and Real Convergence in Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes in Transition Countries: Implications for the EMU Accession," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0270, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    3. Monika Blaszkiewicz & Przemek Kowalski & Lukasz Rawdanowicz & Przemyslaw Wozniak, 2004. "Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Selected Countries of Central and Eastern Europe," CASE Network Reports 0057, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    4. Ciaian, Pavel & Swinnen, Johan F.M., 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Central and Eastern Europe," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48385, World Bank.

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