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Micro and Macro Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Göcke

    (University of Munster)

  • Ansgar Belke

    (University of Bochum)

Abstract

A baseline micro model leading to employment hysteresis due to hiring- and firing- costs is proposed. A band of inaction accounting for a "weaker" relationship between employment and its determinants is widened by option value effects of exchange rate uncertainty. Based on this micro foundation an aggregation approach under certainty is developed. While at the micro-level exchange rate thresholds have to be passed, at the macro level small changes yield persistent effects. However, under uncertainty, intervals of weak response to exchange rate reversals are introduced on the macro-level. "Spurts" in new employment or firing may occur after an initially weak response.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Göcke & Ansgar Belke, 1999. "Micro and Macro Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 722, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf9:722
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Goecke, 2019. "Economic Hysteresis with Multiple Inputs - A Simplified Treatment," Interdisciplinary Description of Complex Systems - scientific journal, Croatian Interdisciplinary Society Provider Homepage: http://indecs.eu, vol. 17(1-B), pages 98-113.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Kronen, Dominik, 2017. "Exchange rate bands of inaction and hysteresis in EU exports to the global economy: The role of uncertainty," Ruhr Economic Papers 695, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Beckmann, Rainer & Eppendorfer, Carsten & Neimke, Markus, 2002. "Deepening European Financial Integration: Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Evaluation of Growth and Employment Benefits," MPRA Paper 5272, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Beckmann, Rainer & Eppendorfer, Carsten & Neimke, Markus, 2002. "Financial integration within the European Union: Towards a single market for insurance," MPRA Paper 5280, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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