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Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population

Author

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  • David Lamper
  • Sam Howison
  • Neil Johnson

Abstract

The dynamical evolution of many economic, sociological, biological and physical systems tends to be dominated by a relatively small number of unexpected, large changes (`extreme events'). We study the large, internal changes produced in a generic multi-agent population competing for a limited resource, and find that the level of predictability actually increases prior to a large change. These large changes hence arise as a predictable consequence of information encoded in the system's global state.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lamper & Sam Howison & Neil Johnson, 2001. "Predictability of large future changes in a competitive evolving population," OFRC Working Papers Series 2001mf01, Oxford Financial Research Centre.
    • Handle: RePEc:sbs:wpsefe:2001mf01
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    File URL: http://www.finance.ox.ac.uk/file_links/finecon_papers/2001mf01.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Andersen, Jørgen Vitting & de Peretti, Philippe, 2021. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 612-620.
    2. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Post-Print hal-02435934, HAL.
    3. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01960900, HAL.
    4. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02435934, HAL.
    5. J. Wiesinger & D. Sornette & J. Satinover, 2013. "Reverse Engineering Financial Markets with Majority and Minority Games Using Genetic Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 475-492, April.
    6. Zapart, Christopher A., 2009. "On entropy, financial markets and minority games," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(7), pages 1157-1172.
    7. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Post-Print halshs-01960900, HAL.
    8. repec:wsi:acsxxx:v:21:y:2018:i:08:n:s0219525918500194 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2020. "Heuristics in experiments with infinitely large strategy spaces," Papers 2005.02337, arXiv.org.
    10. Yi-Fang Liu & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2016. "Onset of financial instability studied via agent-based models," Post-Print hal-01397400, HAL.
    11. Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Philippe de Peretti, 2018. "New method to detect convergence in simple multi-period market games with infinite large strategy spaces," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 18038, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    12. Damien Challet & R'emy Chicheportiche & Mehdi Lallouache & Serge Kassibrakis, 2016. "Statistically validated lead-lag networks and inventory prediction in the foreign exchange market," Papers 1609.04640, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2018.

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