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Evaluating Non-Linear Approaches in Forecasting Tourist Arrivals

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Saayman
  • Ilse Botha

Abstract

Quantitative methods to forecasting tourist arrivals can be sub-divided into causal methods and non-causal methods. Non-causal time series methods remain popular tourism forecasting tools due to the accuracy of their forecasting ability and general ease of use. Since tourist arrivals exhibit seasonality, SARIMA models are often found to be the most accurate. However, these models […]

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Saayman & Ilse Botha, 2015. "Evaluating Non-Linear Approaches in Forecasting Tourist Arrivals," Working Papers 492, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    • Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:492
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    File URL: https://econrsa.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/working_paper_492.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "Sri Lanka – the wonder of Asia: analyzing monthly tourist arrivals in the post-war era," MPRA Paper 96790, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Jiao, Xiaoying & Li, Gang & Chen, Jason Li, 2020. "Forecasting international tourism demand: a local spatiotemporal model," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Musara Chipumuro & Delson Chikobvu & Tendai Makoni, 2024. "Statistical Analysis of Overseas Tourist Arrivals to South Africa in Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 on Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-17, July.
    4. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. ""Incredible India"-an empirical confrimation from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique," MPRA Paper 96909, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric modelling; Macroeconomic Models; Spatial Models; Time Series Analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • Z00 - Other Special Topics - - General - - - General
    • Z3 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics
    • Z31 - Other Special Topics - - Tourism Economics - - - Industry Studies

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