IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rjr/wpiecf/081103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in Transitional Economies: A theoretical and empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Albu, Lucian Liviu

Abstract

Standard economic theory tells that a command system, like the former eastern economies, allocates resources poorly due to the impossibility of accurate calculation. Therefore, once prices are freed and start to operate at quasi-equilibrium (market-clearing) levels, the hidden inefficiencies come into the open and a possible massive resource reallocation would have to take place. More precisely, the issue refers to the possible and probable intensity of resource reallocation in view of constraints like the balance between exit and entry in the labour market, the size of the budget deficit and the means for its non-inflationary financing, social and political stability, etc. This paper tries to conceptualise the fact that the dynamics of unemployment and inflation are correlated not in a classical sense but in a very complicated mode that suggests the occurrence of some attractors when certain slow parameters are evolving in the neighbourhood of special threshold-values. The start is made with simple models that are based on empirical data and can show to us the traces to discover the steps of transition in eastern economies on the inflation-unemployment relationship space. Then, using economic theory combined with non-linear modelling more refined information is extracted from the statistical standardised data for to evaluate other faces of the eastern transition.

Suggested Citation

  • Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2008. "Strain and Inflation-Unemployment Relationship in Transitional Economies: A theoretical and empirical investigation," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081103, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:081103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/RePEc/WorkingPapers/wpiecf081103.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fischer, Edwin O & Jammernegg, Werner, 1986. "Empirical Investigation of a Catastrophe Theory Extension of the Phillips Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(1), pages 9-17, February.
    2. Daniel Daianu & Lucian-Liviu Albu, "undated". "Strain and the Inflation - Unemployment Relationship: A Conceptual and Empirical Investigation," Ace Project Memoranda 96/15, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    3. Santomero, Anthony M & Seater, John J, 1978. "The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off: A Critique of the Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 499-544, June.
    4. Soliman, A. S., 1996. "Transitions from stable equilibrium points to periodic cycles to chaos in a phillips curve system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 139-153.
    5. Benoit B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Macromodel of the Romanian market economy (version 2005)," MPRA Paper 35749, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2010. "Scenarios for post-crisis period based on a set of presumed changes in the interest rate – investment – GDP growth relationship," MPRA Paper 32753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2005. "A Dynamic Model To Estimate The “Pure” Productivity," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 2(1), pages 30-34.
    4. Dobrescu, Emilian, 2006. "Double-Conditioned Potential Output," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(1), pages 32-50, March.
    5. Lucian-Liviu Albu, 2006. "Trends in inflation-unemployment relationship before and after accession to EU," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 1(3), pages 25-33, September.
    6. Emilian Dobrescu, 2006. "Integration of Macroeconomic Behavioural Relationships and the Input-output Block (Romanian Modelling Experience)," EcoMod2006 272100018, EcoMod.
    7. Albu, Lucian Liviu, 2006. "Trends in the Interest Rate - Investment - GDP Growth Relationship," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(3), pages 5-13, September.
    8. Albu, Lucian-Liviu & Diaconescu, Tiberiu, 2009. "Simulation on long-term correlation between demographic variables and economic growth," MPRA Paper 33003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2006. "A dynamic model to estimate the long-run trends in potential GDP," MPRA Paper 3708, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2006. "Non-linear models: applications in economics," MPRA Paper 3100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Lucian Liviu Albu, 2010. "From Standard Macroeconomics To Non-Linear Macroeconomics," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 5-33, april.
    3. Soliman, A. S., 1996. "Transitions from stable equilibrium points to periodic cycles to chaos in a phillips curve system," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 139-153.
    4. W Barentsen & P Nijkamp, 1988. "Nonlinear Dynamic Modelling of Spatial Interactions," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 15(4), pages 433-446, December.
    5. Francisco Gerardo Benavides-Bravo & Dulce Martinez-Peon & Ángela Gabriela Benavides-Ríos & Otoniel Walle-García & Roberto Soto-Villalobos & Mario A. Aguirre-López, 2021. "A Climate-Mathematical Clustering of Rainfall Stations in the Río Bravo-San Juan Basin (Mexico) by Using the Higuchi Fractal Dimension and the Hurst Exponent," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-11, October.
    6. Turvey, Calum G., 2001. "Random Walks And Fractal Structures In Agricultural Commodity Futures Prices," Working Papers 34151, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Nadiezhda de la Uz, 2002. "La hipótesis de martingala en el mercado bursátil mexicano," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 17(1), pages 91-127.
    8. Erhard Reschenhofer & Manveer K. Mangat, 2021. "Fast computation and practical use of amplitudes at non-Fourier frequencies," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 1755-1773, September.
    9. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Font-Ferrer, Alejandro & Sorrosal-Forradellas, M. Teresa & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2019. "An information theory perspective on the informational efficiency of gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
    11. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2006. "Fractional integration in daily stock market indexes," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 28-48.
    12. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1647 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2019. "Dynamic Predictor Selection And Order Splitting In A Limit Order Market," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(5), pages 1757-1792, July.
    14. Bolgorian, Meysam, 2019. "Can a cusp catastrophe model describe the effect of sanctions on exchange rates?," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Paul Eitelman & Justin Vitanza, 2008. "A non-random walk revisited: short- and long-term memory in asset prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 956, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Lange Rense & Oliva Terence A. & McDade Sean R., 2000. "An Algorithm for Estimating Multivariate Catastrophe Models: GEMCAT II," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(3), pages 1-34, October.
    17. Juan Benjamin Duarte Duarte & Leonardo Hernán Talero Sarmiento & Katherine Julieth Sierra Suárez, 2017. "Evaluación del efecto de la psicología del inversionista en un mercado bursátil artificial mediante su grado de eficiencia," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 62(4), pages 1345-1360, Octubre-D.
    18. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    19. Carlos D. Ramirez, 2024. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty under fractional integration," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 23(1), pages 89-110, January.
    20. Serletis, Apostolos & Rosenberg, Aryeh Adam, 2009. "Mean reversion in the US stock market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 2007-2015.
    21. Renzo Pardo Figueroa & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2014. "Distinguishing between True and Spurious Long Memory in the Volatility of Stock Market Returns in Latin America," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2014-395, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural rate of unemployment; potential function; Hurst exponent; pitchfork bifurcation; modified Phillips curve; Rössler attractor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:wpiecf:081103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.