대러시아 제재가 중동부유럽 경제에 미치는 영향과 시사점(The Impact of Anti-Russian Sanctions and Implications for the Economy of Central and Eastern Europe)

본 연구는 러시아와 우크라이나 간 전쟁 발발 이후 EU의 대러시아 제재가 중동부유럽 국가에 미치는 영향을 다각도로 분석하고, 우리의 대중동부유럽 경제관계에 대한 시사점을 도출하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 본 연구는 크게 다음과 같은 세 가지 이슈로 구성되어 있다. 첫째, 중동부유럽 국가가 러시아와 얼마나 밀접한 경제관계를 맺고 있는지, 둘째, 그에 따라 러시아발 지정학적 위기가 중동부유럽 경제에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지, 마지막 셋째, 한국 기업과 정부는 중동부유럽과의 경제관계에 어떻게 대응해야 하는지이다. 현지 진출기업 면담 결과, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 발발 이후 중동부유럽 진출 우리 기업의 비즈니스 환경 변화는 공급망 문제, 에너지 가격 급등, 고용난 등의 부문에서 가장 두드러지게 나타난 것으로 드러났다. The Russia-Ukraine war and EU sanctions against Russia are having a negative impact not only on Russia but also on the overall EU economy, and these negative effects are expected to continue into 2023 as the war prolongs. Central and Eastern European countries, which enjoy relatively strong trade, business and energy-related links with Russia, have been hit particularly hard. Central and Eastern European countries bordering Russia and Ukraine are relatively dependent on Russia for energy, and are expected to suffer the greatest economic damage in terms of trade relations. Policies toward Russia in Central and Eastern Europe have maintained various stances depending on country, ranging from Poland, which consistently maintains an anti-Russian stance, to Hungary, a typical pro-Russian country, or have recently undergone a change in stance. Central and Eastern European countries located on the EU border or those close to Russia and have some legacy of past socialist alliances, regardless of their pro-Russian or anti-Russian ties, generally have close economic ties with Russia. Therefore, after the invasion of Ukraine, the EU’s sanctions on Russia will inevitably have a serious impact on the Central and Eastern European countries in various sectors such as trade, investment, and finance as well as the energy sector, which is expected to suffer a direct short-term impact. In 2004 and 2007, Korean companies entered Central and Eastern Europe in large numbers including the four Visegrad countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary), set production bases in Europe, and then made further investments. The Visegrad V4 countries represent the largest export market for Korea in the EU, accounting for 28.3% of its exports to the EU in 2020. As such, Central and Eastern Europe, where Korea has the most active economic cooperation in Europe, is expected to suffer the most serious and diverse negative impacts from geopolitical crises, including the recent Russia-Ukraine war.(the rest omitted)