디지털 통상규범의 경제적 효과 추정에 관한 연구(A Study on Estimating the Economic Impact of Digital Trade Agreements)

이 연구에서는 일반균형모형 구축을 통해 디지털 통상협정의 경제적 효과를 정량적으로 분석한다. 이를 위해 디지털 통상협정에서 주요한 디지털 통상규범을 식별하고, 규범 도입이 가져올 변화를 정량적으로 추정한다. 그리고 디지털 경제의 특성을 포함한 일반균형모형을 구축하여 규범 도입에 따라 나타나는 거시경제적 영향을 분석하며, 장기적으로 국내 경제에 미칠 파급효과에 대해 살펴본다. Discussions to establish common rules for digital trade and to enhance cooperation in the digital economy are taking place on various platforms. At the multilateral level, WTO e-commerce negotiations are in progress, and at the bilateral level, e-commerce chapters of regional trade agreements are being revised. South Korea is also expanding its digital trade network by promoting a number of digital trade agreements. Digital trade rules introduced by digital trade agreements are expected to have an economic impact via multiple channels. Digital trade rules have the potential to facilitate digital trade by reducing trade barriers, leading to overall trade expansion. Expanding trade not only boosts production through increased imports and exports, but can also increase productivity through the spillover of new technologies and increased competition. As the digital trade network expands, the need to analyze the economic impact of digital trade agreements also grows. In recognition of these developments, this study quantitatively analyzes the economic effects of digital trade agreements through a general equilibrium model. We first identify the key digital trade rules in digital trade agreements and estimate how much they reduce trade barriers. Then we build a general equilibrium model that includes the characteristics of the digital economy to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of introducing digital trade rules. This study largely consists of five parts. In Chapter 2, we explore digital trade barriers, such as policy restrictions and technology barriers that can limit digital trade between countries and review the key provisions in digital trade agreements in order to mitigate the barriers. While there are still no explicit rules at the multilateral level such as the WTO, except for a moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions, digital trade rules in RTAs have become more comprehensive over time and the level of liberalization is increasing. In addition, Digital Economy Agreements have emerged that contain provisions for cooperation in areas such as SMEs, AI, and fintech. (the rest omitted)