대외충격의 자본유출입 효과와 경기안정화 정책 분석(Impact of External Shocks on Capital Flows and Effectiveness of Economic Stabilization Policies)

자본유출입은 국경 간 리스크 전이의 주요 경로로 작용하는데, 급격한 자본이동하에 대외충격은 대내 시스템적 리스크를 촉발시켜 금융위기의 가능성을 높인다. 오늘날과 같이 미·중 전략 경쟁, 러시아-우크라이나 사태, 이스라엘-하마스 전쟁, 보호주의 및 자국우선주의 강화 등의 영향으로 무역 규범 및 금융 인프라의 국제레짐 (international regime)이 제재도구화되는 탈세계화 추세는 국가 간 자본이동의 파급효과에 더 큰 불확실성을 더하고 있다. 이에 따라 본 보고서에서는 팬데믹 위기 이후 주요 대외충격과 정책대응 및 국경 간 자본유출입 현황을 파악하고, 불확실성이 자본유출입에 미치는 효과를 재점검한다. This report examines the impact of external shocks on cross-border capital flows and major macroeconomic variables, and analyzed the effects of economic stabilization policies on economic conditions. An open economy with free cross-border capital flows has achieved faster economic growth than a closed economy with similar resource endowments, thanks to a more sophisticated financial system and robust macroeconomic institutions and policies. However, it is well known that building a sophisticated financial system by opening capital markets has the advantage of promoting economic growth, but it also increases the risk of economic crises. Kaminsky and Reinhart(1999) confirmed that in 18 out of 26 banking crisis episodes that occurred from 1970 to 2000, the financial markets of the respective countries had been opened within five years prior to the onset of the crisis. As the freedom of cross-border capital movement increases, large-scale capital flows into fast -growing countries in pursuit of higher investment returns, leading to an increase in asset prices and triggering credit expansion. Ultimately, large capital inflows can lead to the overvaluation of a country's currency, increase the current account deficit, and increase the likelihood of a "sudden stop" economic crisis. Reinhart (2012) reports that the precursors of financial crises are large capital inflows accompanied by rapid increases in stock prices, surges in real estate prices, -shaped economic growth rates, and a sharp increases in debt levels. In other words, excessive capital inflows stimulate lending, boost asset prices, and increase debt in both the private and public sectors. Therefore, cross-border capital flows play a positive role in activating investment for economic growth but, at the same time, can transmit shocks in the external economy, causing spillovers and increasing macroeconomic volatility. (the rest omitted)