대러 경제 제재가 러시아 경제에 미치는 영향과 한-러 경제협력 안정화 방안(Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impact of the Sanctions on the Russian Economy and Stabilization Measures for KOREA-RUSSIA Economic Cooperation

본 연구는 서방의 대러시아 경제제재가 장기화되는 상황에서 제재가 러시아 경제에 미치는 영향을 이론과 실증 양면에서 엄밀하게 분석하였다. 동시에 2022년 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁 이후 서방의 대러시아 제재에 대응한 러시아 정부의 대내외 전략을 체계적으로 살펴보았다. 이러한 분석을 토대로 한국과 러시아의 경제협력 안정화 방안을 단기와 중장기로 나누어 도출하였다. This research analyzes the economic impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy and explores measures to stabilize economic cooperation between South Korea and Russia. Even if the war between Russia and Ukraine are resolved in any manner, it is highly likely that Western sanctions on Russia may persist in the long term, given the difficulty in resolving deep-rooted traditional conflicts between Western ideologies and Russian ideologies. Therefore, there is an urgent need for a systematic analysis of the long-term impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy. Additionally, it is crucial not to passively observe a deterioration in economic cooperation between the two countries due to the sanctions. This is because the potential for economic cooperation between the two countries has not yet been fully realized, and expectations are high for a mutually beneficial collaboration through dense future economic cooperation. Consequently, exploring measures to stabilize economic cooperation between South Korea and Russia in the face of anticipated prolonged Russian sanctions is a highly meaningful undertaking. For this purpose, this study comprehensively compares and analyzes the diverse characteristics of Western sanctions against Russia after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War with those imposed after the 2014 Crimean Peninsula crisis. While the 2014 sanctions primarily exhibited targeted and cautionary features in specific areas, the 2022 sanctions are characterized by an all-encompassing comprehensiveness and substantial punitive nature without sectoral limitations. Due to these contrasting features, the impact of the 2022 sanctions on key macroeconomic indicators of the Russian economy was profoundly severe. (the rest omitted)