순대외금융자산이 경제안정과 금융 국제화에 미치는 영향 분석(Effect of Net International Investment Position on Economic Stability and Financial Internationalization)

본 연구는 우리나라의 순대외금융자산이 흑자로 전환된 상황에서 순대외금융자산이 금융시장 안정, 경기 변동성, 그리고 금융국제화에 미친 영향에 대해 분석하고 주요국의 금융국제화 사례를 조사하였다. 이를 바탕으로 경제안정 및 금융국제화 역량을 강화할 수 있는 정책 시사점을 제시하였다. 본 연구를 통해 순대외금융자산 흑자는 자본유출입 변동성 완화, 금융서비스 국제경쟁력 강화에 일조하는 것으로 확인됐다. 이는 경제안정과 금융국제화 측면에서 순대외금융자산 흑자의 중요성에 대한 이해의 폭을 넓히고 우리나라의 금융국제화 역량 강화에 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, Korea's external financial sector has undergone significant structural changes. Korea's net international investment position (IIP), the difference between external financial assets and liabilities, achieved a surplus in 2014 for the first time in its history. In 2018, the net IIP, excluding foreign exchange reserves, also turned into a surplus and has steadily expanded since then. This structural shift has broader implications beyond numerical values. It can impact financial stability and the pursuit of financial internationalization policies, which have traditionally been challenging to reconcile in Korea. Therefore, this study analyzes the influence of net IIP on financial market stability, economic volatility, and financial internationalization. It also examines financial internationalization procedures in the cases of Germany and Japan. Based on these analyses, this study aims to provide policy implications that can enhance Korea's economic stability and strengthen its financial internationalization capabilities. This study consists of six chapters, excluding the introduction. Chapter 2 examines the trends in Korea's International Investment Position (IIP) and compares them internationally to identify the characteristics of Korea's IIP. When we break down Korea's net IIP into sub-categories, foreign direct investment and other investment turned into surpluses in the early 2010s, and equity portfolio investment also turned into surpluses in 2022. This shift was driven by several external factors in the Korean economy, such as the persistent current account surplus, the expansions of foreign direct investment by companies since 2000, the expansions of bank lendings to Korean overseas subsidiaries, the rapid growth of overseas investments by the general government (notably, the national pension fund) since the global financial crisis in 2008, and the elaboration of overseas investments by securities companies, insurance companies, and individuals. In addition to these observations, several characteristics can be drawn from international comparisons. Firstly, there are only a few countries that have a surplus in their net IIP. As of 2022, only 15 out of 46 major countries have net IIP surpluses, with Korea ranking 11th in net IIP (as a percentage of its GDP). Secondly, most of these surpluses have been achieved recently, since 2010. In case of Korea, its net IIP (excluding foreign exchange reserves) turned positive in 2018, somewhat later than other countries. Lastly, it is important to note that countries that have moved from a deficit to a surplus, including the case of Korea, have generally remained in surplus for the most part. This implies that the shift to a net IIP surplus represents a structural change rather than a temporary one. (the rest omitted)