중국 탄소가격정책이 한중 경제관계 변화에 미치는 영향 및 시사점(Effects and Implications of China’s Carbon Pricing Policy on Changes in Korea-China Economic Relations_

본 보고서는 ‘2060년 탄소중립 달성’을 선언한 중국의 탄소저감전략과 탄소가격정책의 특징을 살펴보고, 중국의 탄소가격정책이 중국 산업과 한중 경제관계에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 분석하였다. 이를 통해 중국의 탄소가격정책으로 인한 산업 생산 및 비용의 변화, 한국의 수출경쟁력 및 대중국 수입·투자의 변화 등을 파악하였으며, 중국 탄소저감정책 관련 수입 공급망 리스크 대응 및 중국과의 협력 분야 모색 등에 대한 시사점을 도출하였다. China’s “carbon neutral clock” has been speeding up since pivoting from its original skepticism regarding developing countries’ obligations to reduce emissions, internationally declaring in 2020 its vision of bringing carbon emissions to a peak in 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. As a developing economy that emits the largest amount of carbon in the world, China’s declaration of carbon neutrality ahead of Korea, the United States, and Japan was praised as a “historic event” adding momentum to the vision of carbon neutrality proposed by the EU, as well as certain doubts over the plausibility of this declaration. However, South Korea, which is highly dependent on China’s economy, experienced an unintended supply chain shock during the so-called “urea water crisis,” and has come to realize the potential ripple effects caused by China’s accelerated “carbon neutral clock.” This study began with the question of and concern over how China’s carbon neutrality policy will affect not only China but also Korea. Leaving for the future a quantitative impact analysis on the entire carbon neutrality policy accompanied by economic and social transformation, this study chose to analyze the impact of China’s carbon price policy, as the first among developing countries to start a national emissions trading system (ETS). In Chapter 2, following a review of China’s carbon reduction strategy, the development process and characteristics of carbon price policy were analyzed. Aiming to meet its mid- to long-term growth target for 2035 (first stage goal of socialist modernization, doubling GDP from 2020), China has designated the target period for carbon emission peaking and achieving carbon neutrality. It plans to reduce carbon emission intensity (emission to GDP) rather than total carbon emission by 2030, the target year for carbon emission peaking, and its strategy is to reduce total carbon emission quickly by 2060 after reaching the mid- to long-term growth target in 2035. Accordingly, in the short term, it plans to control production in high-emission (i.e. high-pollution) industries to quickly reduce emissions.(the rest omitted)