노동소득분배 결정요인 분석과 정책적 시사점(Analysis on the Determinants of Labor Share and Its Policy Implications)

본 연구는 노동소득분배율의 변화 추이를 살펴보고 이러한 변화의 주요 요인에 대해 분석한다. 먼저, 최근까지의 우리나라 노동소득분배율 추이를 추정하고 그 구성요소의 변화를 함께 살펴본다. 다음으로, 기존 연구에서 노동소득분배율 변화의 결정요인으로 제시한 기술 변화, 세계화, 인구와 교육 등이 예측변수로서 의미가 있는지 분석한다. 마지막으로, 노동시장을 변화시킬 것으로 예상되는 로봇의 도입, ICT의 발전, 4차 산업혁명 등의 기술 변화가 노동소득분배율과 노동생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하여 정책적 대응 방향을 제시하고자 한다. The global decline of labor income share has spurred numerous studies investigating the cause of its drop. As decrease in labor share might imply aggravating income inequality, it has been used as one of the main indicators of inequality. Not only is labor income the main source of income for low-income class including the self-employed, but its decline could disproportionately affect low-skilled workers within wage earners. This study analyzes the determinants of the changes in labor share. As technological changes such as adoption of robots, advancements in ICT and the Fourth Industrial Revolution are expected to alter the labor market, we analyze the impact of such technical changes on labor share and derive policy implications. This study mainly consists of four parts. In Chapter 2, we estimated the trend of Korea’s labor income share and examined changes in its components. We addressed the measurement issue of income for the self-employed in two ways. First, we applied various methods proposed in previous studies to macro data and analyzed the adjusted series. Second, we separately estimated labor share using firm-level micro data in which measurement issues do not arise. Main takeaways from these analyses are summarized as follows. First, the level and trend of the labor share in Korea changes greatly when we adjust for the earnings from the self- employed. Most importantly, unlike the traditional measure of labor share, the adjusted series exhibit a downward trend from the mid-1990s to the period of global financial crisis. The difference arises due to relatively stagnant operating surplus of private unincorporated enterprises (OSPUE) compared to rising total employee compensation. Second, short-term changes in labor share are mainly attributed to fluctuations in capital income rather than components of labor income (employee compensation and OSPUE). In particular, fluctuations in net operating profit drive variations in the labor share across time and industries. Third, statistics from various international organizations show that Korea’s overall labor income share has been relatively higher than those of other countries, but the gap is narrowing due to declining share of self-employed workers.(the rest omitted)