중국의 통상환경 변화와 국가별 상품 간 수출 대체가능성 연구 (Multidimensional Substitutability Measurement and Analysis: With an Application to Trade between China and South Korea)

최근 미·중 간 통상 분쟁, 중국의 국산화율 제고정책 강화 등 중국을 둘러싼 대내외 통상환경의 변화가 다이내믹하게 전개되고 있다. 이러한 변화는 한ㆍ중 무역구조에 직간접적으로 영향을 미칠 것으로 전망된다. 이에 본 연구에서는 향후 우리나라의 대중국 수출품이 중국산 또는 외국산 제품에 의해 대체될 수 있는 가능성에 주목하고, 한국산 수출품의 대체가능성을 분석하기 위한 새로운 정량 분석 방법론을 구축하였다. Recent changes in the trade environment surrounding China are developing dynamically. These changes are expected to directly or indirectly affect the Korea-China trade structure. Therefore, in this study, focusing on the possibility that Korea's exports to China could be replaced by Chinese or foreign products in the future, we establish a new quantitative analysis methodology to analyze the level of substitutability of Korean exports. One of the most important external changes in China's trade environment is the U.S.-China trade conflict. In particular, in countries such as Korea that export final products to the U.S. while forming a division of labor with China in the global value chain (GVC), the conflict between the U.S. and China is acting as a greater destabilizing factor. In terms of the substitutability of Korean exports to China, the U.S.-China conflict can have an effect through various channels, and one of the important events is the U.S.-China Phase 1 trade agreement. For internal changes, it is important to study China's industrial upgrading strategy. China, which has been called the “world's factory,” has been pursuing a strategy to improve the localization rate and upgrade its industrial structure through technological development and innovation. Accordingly, China has been adjusting its role and position within the GVC, in which China used to be in charge of the simple processing trade. As the U.S.-China trade dispute escalated since 2018, the U.S. containment policies have intensified as well, particularly against China's advanced industry and technology sector. As a reaction to this, China has dealt with its industrial policies not only in the context of economic growth but also in national security. The strategy to indigenize core technologies and parts has been strengthened and pursued under the goal of establishing a fully independent supply chain within the nation. Due to China's industrial advancement and import substitution strategy, concerns are growing about the replacement of Korean-made exports to China by Chinese products. (the rest omitted)