남북한 CEPA 체결의 중장기 효과 분석 및 추진 방안 연구 (Analysis of the Mid to Long-Term Effect and Promotion Strategy of an Inter-Korean CEPA)

Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 남북경협의 확대 및 남북한 경제통합을 대비하여 남북한 FTA의 필요성과 가능성을 검토하고 추진방안을 제시하였다. 현재 남북경합의 거래관행은 GATT/WTO 체제의 규정, 특히 최혜국 대우 의무와 WTO보조금협정 규정 위반 소지가 있다. 본 연구는 이 문제에 대처하기 위한 가장 현실성 있는 방안이 남북한 CEPA 체결임을 확인하였다. 남북한 CEPA는 정부간 협정보다는 기관간 약정 형태로 체결하는 것이 바람직하며, 남북한 관계의 '역동성'을 감안할 때 중국-대만 방식보다는 중국-홍콩 방식으로 체결하는 것이 타당할 것으로 보인다. 또한 남북한 CEPA의 추진은 단기적 경제효과보다는 장기적 통합효과에 초점을 두어야 하며, CEPA 체결 이후 일정기간 동안 경제적 약자가 체감할 수 있을 정도의 긍정적 효과가 보장되어야 할 것이다. English Abstract: This study examines the necessity and possibility of an inter-Korean FTA to expand inter-Korean economic cooperation and prepare for economic integration between the two Koreas. First, in Chapter 1, we conceptualize an FTA between South and North Korea as a Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA), an FTA between two independent tariff zones in one country, reflecting the special relationship between the two Koreas. This CEPA between South and North Korea would aim at gradually liberalizing trade in goods and services, and facilitating trade and investment. Considering the current system and economic realities of North Korea, it will be necessary to approach the FTA by starting with a low or provisional FTA and gradually increasing this level according to North Korea's regime change and economic development. Therefore, a CEPA between the two Koreas represents an initial stage of economic integration between the two. In Chapter 2 we analyze the cases of the China-Hong Kong CEPA and China-Taiwan ECFA in terms of their respective backgrounds, process, legal status, major contents, and economic effects realized by the FTA. The China-Hong Kong and China-Taiwan FTAs are similar in that both specified the direction of opening and cooperating in each sector during the first round of negotiations, and then further defined the necessary regulations through follow-up negotiations. However, while the China-Hong Kong CEPA systematically opened the market through supplementary agreements once a year, the China-Taiwan ECFA has not led to specific negotiations for goods and services trade besides the EHP (Early Harvest Program). As a result, the performance of the two FTAs shows a marked difference. These differences are mainly attributed to differences in China's political relations with Hong Kong and Taiwan.