세계 주요국의 아프리카 진출전략 및 시사점 (Strategies of Major Nations for Economic Cooperation with Africa and Their Implications)

아프리카는 21세기 들어 새로운 ‘기회의 시장’으로 인식되고 있으며, 이에 따라 세계 주요국 간의 주도권 경쟁이 가열되고 있는 글로벌 경쟁무대로 변모하고 있다. 지난 20세기 아프리카는 내전과 분쟁이 끊이지 않는 ‘위기의 대륙’으로 국제경제 무대에서 외면당해 왔으나, 21세기 들어 정치적 안정과 함께 자원개발 등 잠재적 가치가 새롭게 인식되면서 ‘미개척 시장’이라는 표현이 무색할 정도로 세계 주요국 간의 각축전이 가열되고 있다. 중국의 아프리카 접근 속도는 미국, 유럽 등 서방에서 ‘신식민지’론을 거론하며 견제할 정도에 이르렀다. 중국은 급속한 산업화와 고도성장을 뒷받침할 수 있는 자원 확보가 자국 경제의 아킬레스건으로 등장함에 따라 대규모 원조 공세 등을 앞세우며 아프리카 자원 공략에 매진하고 있다. 중국의 아프리카 진출은 자원분야에만 국한된 것이 아니라 인프라, 농업, 제조업, 금융에서부터 식당, 양품점, 약국, 슈퍼마켓, 기타 영세사업에 이르기까지 거의 모든 분야를 망라하고 있다. 뿐만 아니라 중국의 아프리카 공략은 대륙 전체를 아우르며 전방위적으로 전개되고 있으며, 이에 따라 아프리카에서 중국의 입지가 빠른 속도로 강화되고 있다. 중국은 1950년대부터 자국의 어려운 경제 사정에도 불구하고 우방국을 내세우며 아프리카 원조공세를 아끼지 않았고 이를 통해 협력관계를 공고히 해왔다. 방문 외교를 통한 파상적인 외교 공세도 아끼지 않고 있는데, 중국 지도부는 아프리카를 수시로 방문하여 개발원조 약속 등을 통해 협력의 강도를 높여 나가고 있다. 중국 지도부의 집단적인 아프리카 방문은 고위층 간의 인간적인 유대를 강화하게 되고, 이것이 자원 확보 등 경제협력의 지렛대(leverage) 또는 정치적 결속력을 다지는 인프라로 활용되고 있다. 중국정부는 대규모의 금융 지원을 통해서도 자국 기업의 아프리카 진출을 측면에서 지원해 주고 있는데 여기에는 정책은행들이 핵심적인 역할을 하고 있다. 중국수출입은행은 전체 차관의 40%를 아프리카에 할당하고 있으며, 중국의 국가개발은행(CDB)은 50억 달러(목표액) 규모의 ｢중국-아프리카 개발펀드(CADF)｣를 조성하여 자국 기업의 아프리카 진출을 지원해 주고 있다. 이 외에도 중국공상은행(ICBC), 중국건설은행(CCB), 중국농업은행(CAB) 등 국영상업은행들도 아프리카 지원사업에 적극 가세하고 있다. 중국의 국영기업들이 정정이 불안한 고위험 지역까지 진출할 수 있었던 것도 바로 자국 금융기관들의 막대한 자금 지원과 보증이 있었기에 가능했던 것이다. 중국이 구사하고 있는 아프리카 전략은 외형적으로 어떻게 포장되는가에 관계없이 일차적으로는 자원 확보와 밀접하게 관련되어 있는데, 차관-인프라-자원의 연계방식(package deal)으로 접근하고 있다. 즉 중국은 대규모 차관을 통해 국가기반시설 및 대형 인프라를 건설해주고, 그 대가로 자원개발권을 획득하거나 원유 등 원자재를 직접 받는 일명 ‘앙골라 방식(자원담보 차관)’으로 거래하고 있다. 또한 서방국에 비해 후발주자로 아프리카 자원공략에 나선 중국은 수단, 콩고(DRC), 짐바브웨 등과 같이 정정이 불안하거나 자원경쟁이 상대적으로 심하지 않은 틈새 신흥자원부국을 집중 공략하고 있다. 서방국가들이 내전과 인권탄압, 부패 등을 이유로 이들 국가와 외교관계를 단절하고 진출을 주저하는 동안 중국은 내정불간섭 원칙과 원조공세를 앞세우며 이들 국가에 집중적으로 진출하여 자원을 선점하는 데 성공했다. 중국의 또 다른 아프리카 접근 전략은 대규모의 원조 등을 통한 ‘하드 파워’와 함께 문화적 가치, 발전모델, 정책 및 제도 등의 전파를 통한 ‘소프트 파워’의 확산이다. 중국은 소위 ‘베이징 컨센서스’를 통한 ‘정부 주도형 시장경제발전 모델’을 강조하고 있는데, 서방이나 국제기구의 개혁 요구에 거부감을 가지고 있는 아프리카 권위주의 정권과 공감대를 형성하고 있다. 아프리카에서 중국의 영향력이 빠른 속도로 확대되고 있는 이면에는 아프리카의 개발욕구도 자리하고 있다. 많은 아프리카 국가들은 중국과의 협력 강화가 자국의 개발욕구를 충족시켜주고 나아가 경제발전에 활력을 불러일으킬 것으로 기대하고 있으며, 이에 따라 중국에 대해 높은 신뢰를 보이고 있다. 실제로 아프리카는 중국과의 교역 확대를 통해 새로운 성장의 기회를 마련하고 있으며, 중국의 대규모 투자는 국내자본이 극히 열악하고 외국자본 유입이 저조한 아프리카 국가들로부터 커다란 환영을 받고 있다. 아프리카의 많은 지도자들은 투명성이나 민주주의(good governance) 등과 같은 서구적 가치를 강조하고 있지만 중국은 투자 등을 통해 아프리카 발전에 실질적인 도움을 주고 있다고 믿고 있다. 보다 널리 내다보면 아프리카는 전 세계에서 중국의 영향력이 가장 잘 실현될 수 있는 시험무대가 될 것이라는 전망도 가능하다. With the arrival of the 21st century, Africa, long derided as a basket case, is now seen as a promising market full of opportunities. With new found political stability and enormous natural resources, Africa has gone from a continent rife with conflict and without global economic presence, to a new economic frontier fueling competition among the world’s great powers. The most active of all the major powers in Africa is China, which has entered Africa after realizing its dynamic economy could stall for want of natural resource. China’s now looms large in Africa, involving itself in the continent with large-scale aid and a variety of other means. Though the initial motivation came from natural resources, China has not limited itself in Africa, becoming active in all sectors from infrastructure to small-scale retail. China is not a newcomer, as Communist China was a already in Africa beginning in the 1950s, offering generous aid to African countries despite economic difficulties at home. Chinese presence in Africa increased further as a result of recent visits by China’s top leadership, who promised more aid, and established personal ties with many African leaders. In addition to such political leverage, Chinese firms seeking to enter Africa are taking advantage of financial assistance afforded by public financial institutions including the China Ex/Im Bank, 40% of whose total grants are earmarked for Africa; the China Development Bank (CDB), which has created the 5-billion dollar China-Africa Development Fund (CADF) to provide support for Chinese companies in Africa; there are also the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Construction Bank (CCB), and China Agricultural Bank (CAB). Support from China’s public finance institutions allowed China’s public corporations to step into high-risk areas in Africa. Chinese activities in Africa are motivated primarily by their need for natural resources. The most oft-used approach used by China in securing resources from Africa is through ‘package deals,’ which links promises of grants and building of large-scale infrastructure in exchange for resources. This has become known as the 'Angola Approach', after deals that secured for the Chinese oil from Angola. Being a latecomer in the competition for Africa’s natural resources, China is targeting politically unstable countries or new producers of vital resources where competition is not fierce. Such countries include Sudan, DR Congo, and Zimbabwe; countries that are usually shunned by the west due to civil wars or human rights abuses. Aside from utilization of ‘hard’ power including monetary assistance, China is also working hard to spread its ‘soft power’ in Africa, in the form of government-led development emphasized in the Beijing Consensus and welcomed by authoritarian regimes in Africa who chafe at demands for reform by the west or international organizations. China has disavowed all ‘interference in internal matters,’ and Africans believe cooperation with China will expedite their development needs. Given the lack of domestic capital or infusion of capital from the west, many countries of Africa have created opportunities for renewed growth through cooperation with China. The belief that its activities offer tangible benefits for Africa has caused friction between China and west, which emphasize such values as transparency and good governance. Africa thus represents a test case as to whether China can indeed attain global influence. Increasing Chinese presence in Africa has elicited concern from the US, seeking to increase its own presence in Africa through development aid, increased trade, and creation of security frameworks. Once a ‘national interest backwater’ for the US, Africa has returned to prominence in US foreign policy due to rising terrorist threats and as an alternative source of oil imports that can reduce America’s dependence on the Middle East. Aside from its prominent position in US energy security, Africa is also witnessing a rise in US military presence, namely in the form of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM). AFRICOM is charged with elimination of terrorist threats and is also a strategic set piece designed to limit the spread of Chinese influence on the continent. US efforts to increase economic exchange with Africa is highlighted by AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), which has led to a growth in US-Africa trade. There is a caveat, however, in that oil and other energy products constitute over 80% of items traded via the AGOA framework. Given the fact that a significant portion of China’s oil imports now come from Africa and is likely to increase in the future, US-China competition for African oil is expected to heat up, especially in the oil-rich Gulf of Guinea in the west coast of Africa. As former colonial powers that virtually divided Africa between themselves, the UK and France are mainly concerned about maintaining presence in their former colonies and zones of influence, in the face of increasing competition from China, the US, and India. Aside from forging new partnerships for economic cooperation, the UK has increased aid to Africa by diverting the bulk of its aid money that previously went to South Asia, concentrating on issues of ‘development’ including the attainment of UN MDG’s. The slight drop-off in UK’s attention towards Africa following the end of the Cold War has picked up after issues of development came to the fore, with most of the above mentioned aid geared toward poverty reduction. The 1990s also spelled hard times for UK companies, many of whom withdrew from Africa after rising exchange rates made their African business unprofitable, but many have since returned following a relatively long period of stability that made business in Africa profitable again. France, like the UK, makes full use of networks and the information base it created during the colonial era. This has created enormous benefits for French corporations, who have secured extensive business interests. Summit meetings, high-level visits and business fora are just some of the diplomatic means at France’s disposal in increasing economic cooperation with Africa. Case in point, over 200 meetings between business persons were made possible by the 2010 Franco-African Summit, and a France-Cote d’Ivoire Business Forum in 2011 attracted over 30 large businesses. France also showcased its political/military/diplomatic potency in Africa, by taking the lead in air raids on Libya (Operation Odyssey) in the summer of 2011, after which France became the prime player in Libya’s post-war reconstruction. Japan is also picking up the pace in terms of approaching Africa, in spite of a past relationship that was intermittent. New ties are being forged through the creation a new forum, TICAD (Tokyo International Conference on African Development). TICAD embodies the comprehensive nature of Japan’s efforts toward African development, through which the Japanese government channels large-scale financial assistance, from both public and private sources, for African development. Japan is currently the fifth-largest donor of development aid for Africa, which will enhance its diplomatic influence and positively impact international support for Japan. This is especially true regarding Japan’s efforts to become a permanent member of the UNSC, for which votes by African countries in the UN General Assembly would be crucial. However, given Japan’s comparative lack of influence in Africa, Japan prefers joint entry with large corporations from developed countries, mostly to African countries with large economies or reserves of natural resources. The recent rise in Japanese activity in Africa’s BOP market has led the government create additional incentives to exploit that new market. India, a newcomer to the scene, is attempting to engage Africa both in political (through summits) and economic fronts, the latter consisting of aid and financial assistance, increased trade and investment. While there is deep historical and political links between the two, recent relations have been highlighted by economic exchange (energy resource, trade, investment). India’s recent efforts are similar to China in that they involve so-called package deals: exchange of grants for infrastructure. In this regard, over half of grants disbursed by the India ExIm Bank goes to Africa. not to mention increasing export finance to promote exports of Indian products. In an attempt to set itself apart from rivals such as China, India utilizes its competitive advantage in such fields as ICT to facilitate development cooperation and entry of Indian firms to Africa. Presently, there are also efforts to increase cooperation with west African countries, with whom economic exchange has been lacking compared to its traditional partners in East Africa. India’s rapid growth has meant more demand for energy from overseas, the main reason behind India’s generous financial assistance in approaching West African countries. Africa is no longer the mysterious backwater of old, but an arena for fierce international competition. As a latecomer, Korea lags far behind its competitors in all areas including experience, financial resources, diplomatic influence, and cultural links. Korea will have to take different approaches as well as cooperate with other countries if it wishes to make headway. The first will involve a process of selection and concentration, meaning choosing African countries to focus on and using them as bases to move on to countries in the vicinity. Instead of apportioning different sectors to different countries, Korea needs to focus on creating systematic linkages between sectors within a country to maximize the positive impacts from economic cooperation. Second, Korea needs to develop its own approach to economic cooperation, drawing from its own experiences while taking the unique conditions in Africa into account. As Africa has yet to extract itself from poverty despite package deals with China and aid from the West, a new approach is vitally necessary. An approach modeled after Korea’s Saemaul (New Village) Movement tailored to African circumstances might be in order, as many rural areas in Africa contain tribal, homogenous communities. Saemaul’s success, made possible by local ties, cohesion, and traditional leadership, could serve as an important benchmark. Third, more funds need to be secured through cooperation with foreign financial institutions. Abundant financial resources is the key to the current position in Africa enjoyed by companies from the major countries. The Korea Ex/Im Bank will need to arrange co-financing involving foreign banks, as African countries generally have low credit ratings, thus making projects risky and making financing by Korean banks alone difficult. The level of financial support needs to be raised significantly by working with foreign export credit institutions and such multilateral development and international investment banks as the World Bank, International Finance Corporation, African Development Bank, and the European Investment Bank. This was the method which enabled Korea to finance several major projects in the Middle East. Last but not least, there is the option of joining hands with foreign corporations. Any potential Korean entry into the African market will be extraordinarily difficult, given the dominance of major country firms in the African market by virtue of their history, financial resources, and experience. Cooperating with these firms might allow Korean companies to share the burden while compensating for their lack of capital, technology and several other areas. Thus formation of consortiums remain a viable option for reducing risks and securing more capital. Advanced countries could also provide diplomatic influence that could decrease potential risks even further for Korean firms, and the Ambatovy mining project in Madagascar provides a prime example of this approach.