글로벌 금융위기 이후 국제경제환경의 변화와 한국의 대외경제정책 방향 (제1권) (Changes in International Economic Order after the Global Financial Crisis and Korea's International Economic Policy-1)

Korean Abstract: 2008년의 글로벌 금융위기는 많은 측면에서 세계경제 환경과 질서를 변화시켰다. 그중 일부는 쉽게 관찰 가능하지만, 또 다른 일부는 좀더 면밀히 관찰할 때만 확인되는 것도 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 세계경제 환경이 어떤 부분에서 어떻게 변화했는지를 종합적으로 평가하고, 이를 바탕으로 향후 대외경제환경의 변화를 전망하며 우리의 장기적인 대외경제정책 방향에 대한 시사점을 도출하는 것이다. 본 보고서는 크게 네 가지 측면-위기의 조망, 글로벌체제의 변화, 선진국 경제의 변화, 신흥국 경제의 변화-에서 글로벌 금융위기 이후의 세계경제 변화를 분석하고 있다. 제Ⅰ부 ‘위기의 조망’에서는 최근의 위기를 역사적 시각에서, 그리고 세계경제 전체의 시각에서 관찰한다. 우선 글로벌 금융위기를 1930년대 대공황기의 금융위기와 비교하면, 두 위기의 원인은 유사하지만 그 대응에서는 뚜렷한 차이가 발견된다. 즉 자산가격 상승, 채무 축적, 금융혁신에 따른 규제의 부실, 낙관적 기대에 기초한 모멘텀 투자 등이 두 위기의 공통된 원인이다. 반면 이번 위기가 발발한 직후 통화당국이 최종 대부자로서 신속하게 대응한 것은 대공황기와 달랐는데, 이것이 긍정적 차이라면 부정적 차이는 위기로부터 얻는 뼈저린 교훈과 반성이 대공황기에 비해 부족하다는 점이다. 제3장에서는 위기 이전 글로벌 불균형의 주된 원인이 균형에서 벗어난 환율수준에 있었다기보다는 미국의 저금리정책에 있었음을 보이고 있다. 미국의 저금리가 주택시장에 대한 투자확대와 과잉소비를 가져왔고, 이는 미국의 경상수지 적자를 초래했다. 위기 이후의 경상수지 불균형 축소는 경기침체에 따라 일시적으로 미국의 소비가 축소되고 중국의 수출증가가 둔화되면서 나타난 것이므로 일시적인 현상일 가능성이 높다. 미국의 통화정책이 고금리로 전환되어 미국의 소비-저축 구조가 변화될 때 비로소 글로벌 불균형의 조정이 가능할 것으로 판단된다. English Abstract: The global financial crisis started in 2008 has changed the world economic order or environments in multiple aspects. The goal of this study is to make an overall assessment of the changes in each aspect after the crisis, to forecast the direction of the further change, and to draw implications for Korea’s international economic policy. This study deals with the topic in four categories: overview of the crisis, changes in global governance, changes in advanced economies, and changes in emerging economies. In Part I which overviews the crisis, we contrast the recent crisis with the Great Depression of the 1930s from the perspective of comparative history and examine fundamental causes of global imbalances which were an important background of the crisis. Part II discusses the changes in international economic order or global governance created by impacts of the crisis. The changes include the emergence of the G20 as a new international forum, the tendency of financial re-regulation, and the stalemate in international climate change negotiation. This part deals with also the rise of the G2 system as a global political order which was caused by the great resilience of the Chinese economy after the crisis. Part III covers the changes which happened in advanced economies in the post-crisis era. The notable changes are the crisis of the Euro system, widespread fiscal consolidations, and deterioration of economic inequality. Part IV examines the changes in emerging economies. Rapid recovery from the crisis in these economies is contrasted with stagnation in advanced countries. This two-speed recovery from the crisis enhanced the status and proportion of emerging economies. Internally, however, cracks in political order were often incurred as in the Middle East. In East Asia the greater Chinese economy created a substantial change in the regional economic integration framework. In conclusion the prospect of further changes in the world economy and their implications for Korean economy are provided. The global financial crisis has worked as a momentum to accelerate structural changes which were already under way in the world economy. One of the most significant changes is the shift in the economic gravity from advanced economies to emerging ones. The other is rethinking of economic liberalization or deregulation movements which continued after the 1980s. These changes imply that capitalism requires its reformulation on the basis of new economic and social norms. However, it is highly susceptible whether such reformulations are actually in progress now. It is also obscure whether a new global economic order is being re-established after the crisis. Although the shift in global economic power toward emerging economies brought about the creation of the G20, the governance seems too fragile and fluid to replace the old global order. Rather, the decline in the US hegemony and heightened tensions between the US and China appear to make global governance more unstable. In addition, regional integrations which were developing encountered a critical moment as shown in Europe and East Asia. Consequently, cooperative global governance seems most unlikely to be built up, reflecting the emerging multi-polar world economic system. The unlikeliness is attributed to the internal weaknesses of emerging economies, particularly China, which should work as a setter of new rules. The weaknesses include income inequality, political risk, lingering inflation, fragile financial system, and so forth. These factors are constraining the capacity or willingness for China to participate in making new global rules. In foreseeable future the world economy will spend time and efforts in managing the problems caused by the crisis with existing global orders dismantled but new norms unset. Under these prospects for the world economic circumstances, Korea’s economic policy should be aimed at keeping the economic stability against possible external shocks. Particularly it needs to be prepared to absorb the volatile international financial markets and capital flows. As well it has to induce international cooperation in order to resist protectionist trade policies. Korea needs to intensify economic linkages with emerging economies, but also has to be cautious of their political risks. As for the East Asian economic integration, it needs to steadily engage Japan in the integration process and to circumscribe the leverage of China together with Japan.