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Discounting Trillions of Dollars in Pension Obligations: A Better Alternative to Using the Expected Return or Risk-Free Rate

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  • Woutersen, Tiemen

    (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)

Abstract

This paper proposes a new discount rate that pension funds can use to discount their future obligations. If the payouts of a pension fund depend on the return of the fund's assets, then neither the risk-free rate nor the expected return is an equitable way to discount future liabilities. Using the newly proposed rate, the expected utilities of a particular stream of payments are the same in each period. This proposed rate is higher than the discount rate that is used by some pension funds but lower than the rate that the U.S. States are required to use.

Suggested Citation

  • Woutersen, Tiemen, 2022. "Discounting Trillions of Dollars in Pension Obligations: A Better Alternative to Using the Expected Return or Risk-Free Rate," Studies in Applied Economics 204, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0204
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aleksandar Andonov & Rob M.M.J. Bauer & K.J. Martijn Cremers, 2017. "Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2555-2595.
    2. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    3. O. Emre Ergungor, 2017. "When States Default: Lessons from Law and History," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue October.
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    5. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Presidential Address: Discount Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1047-1108, August.
    6. William F. Sharpe, 1964. "Capital Asset Prices: A Theory Of Market Equilibrium Under Conditions Of Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 425-442, September.
    7. Jeffrey R. Brown & David W. Wilcox, 2009. "Discounting State and Local Pension Liabilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 538-542, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Discount rate; Pension fund obligations; valuation future obligations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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