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Will the Pandemic Bulge in Money Cause High Inflation?

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  • Hetzel, Robert

    (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)

Abstract

The monetary aggregate M2 increased from $15,473 billion in February 2020 to $19,670 billion in February 2021, or by 27.1%. Real M2 (M2 deflated by the CPI) increased similarly by 25.3% (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2REAL). This monetary acceleration, unprecedented outside of wartime, is apparent in a longer-run perspective. From the trough of the last business cycle in June 2009 through February 2020, annualized monthly growth rates for M2 averaged 5.9%. Over the interval March 2020 through June 2020, they averaged 65.6%. Although diminished, rapid M2 growth continued, averaging 12.9% from July 2020 through March 2021. Milton Friedman famously said that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. If he is right, should not this bulge in money lead to an undesirably high rate of inflation?

Suggested Citation

  • Hetzel, Robert, 2021. "Will the Pandemic Bulge in Money Cause High Inflation?," Studies in Applied Economics 180, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0180
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    References listed on IDEAS

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