IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/jhisae/0048.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Caused the Recession of 1797?

Author

Listed:
  • Curott, Nicholas

    (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)

  • Watts, Tyler

    (The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise)

Abstract

This paper presents a monetary explanation for the U.S. recession of 1797. Credit expansion initiated by the Bank of the United States in the early 1790s unleashed a bout of inflation and low real interest rates, which spurred a speculative investment bubble in real estate and capital intensive manufacturing and infrastructure projects. A correction occurred as domestic inflation created a disparity in international prices that led to a reduction in net exports. Specie flowed out of the country, prices began to fall, and real interest rates spiked. In the ensuing credit crunch, businesses reliant upon rolling over short term debt were rendered unsustainable. The general economic downturn, which ensued throughout 1797 and 1798, involved declines in the price level and nominal GDP, the bursting of the real estate bubble, and a cluster of personal bankruptcies and business failures. We detail the scope of the credit expansion, price level movements, fluctuations in interest rates, and the investment errors that these conditions spawned in several sectors of the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Curott, Nicholas & Watts, Tyler, 2016. "What Caused the Recession of 1797?," Studies in Applied Economics 48, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0048
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/files/2017/04/Curott_Watts_Recession_of_1797.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cowen, David J., 2000. "The First Bank of the United States and the Securities Market Crash of 1792," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 1041-1060, December.
    2. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Introduction to "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods"," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods, pages 1-85, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Milton Friedman & Anna Jacobson Schwartz, 1970. "Monetary Statistics of the United States: Estimates, Sources, Methods," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie70-1.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & David C. Wheelock, 1998. "Price stability and financial stability: the historical record," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 41-62.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas A. Curott & Tyler A. Watts, 2018. "A Monetary Explanation for the Recession of 1797," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 381-399, June.
    2. Calomiris, Charles W. & Mason, Joseph R. & Wheelock, David C., 2011. "Did Doubling Reserve Requirements Cause the Recession of 1937-1938? A Microeconomic Approach," Working Papers 11-03, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    3. Vijay VICTOR & Maria FEKETE FARKAS & Florence JEESON, 2018. "Inflation unemployment dynamics in Hungary – A structured cointegration and vector error correction model approach," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(615), S), pages 195-204, Summer.
    4. William A Barnett & Unja Chae & John W Keating, 2012. "Forecast Design In Monetary Capital Stock Measurement," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1-53.
    5. Oluwaseun Okikiola, 2021. "The Impact of Money Market Dynamics on the Economic Growth of Nigeria," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(10), pages 77-85, October.
    6. Apostolos Serletis, 2017. "An Interview with William A. Barnett," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-32, October.
    7. Rockoff, Hugh, 2022. "Milton Friedman on bailouts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. William A. Barnett, 2013. "Friedman and Divisia Monetary Measures," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201312, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2013.
    9. Ignacio Briones & Hugh Rockoff, 2005. "Do Economists Reach a Conclusion on Free-Banking Episodes?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 2(2), pages 279-324, August.
    10. Darrat, Ali F. & Al-Mutawa, Ahmed, 1996. "Modelling money demand in the United Arab Emirates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 65-87.
    11. Roberto Robatto, 2015. "Financial Crises and Systemic Bank Runs in a Dynamic Model of Banking," 2015 Meeting Papers 483, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Jocelyn Horne & Vance Martin & Shane Bonetti, 1986. "Asset Substitution and Aggregate Liquidity in Australia: 1969–1983," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 62(1), pages 22-36, March.
    13. Patrice Baubeau & Eric Monnet & Angelo Riva & Stefano Ungaro, 2021. "Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(1), pages 223-250, February.
    14. Mehak Moazam & M. Ali Kemal, 2016. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Oil Prices," Working Papers id:11507, eSocialSciences.
    15. Khan, Mahmood ul Hasan & Hussain, Fida, 2005. "Monetary aggregates in Pakistan: theoretical and empirical underpinnings," MPRA Paper 31430, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
    16. Patrick Newman, 2016. "Expansionary Monetary Policy at the Federal Reserve in the 1920s," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Studies in Austrian Macroeconomics, volume 20, pages 105-134, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    17. James R. Lothian & George S. Tavlas, 2018. "How Friedman and Schwartz Became Monetarists," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 757-787, June.
    18. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    19. Roberto Robatto, 2019. "Systemic Banking Panics, Liquidity Risk, and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 20-42, October.
    20. Serletis, Apostolos & Xu, Libo, 2020. "Functional monetary aggregates, monetary policy, and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Panic of 1797; business cycles; speculation; credit expansion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:jhisae:0048. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Steve H. Hanke (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iaejhus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.