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Export Boom and Economic Performance: Bolivia 2004-2015

Author

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  • Loza, Melissa

    (Universidad Privada Boliviana)

  • Morales, Juan Antonio

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Abstract

The supercycle of high commodity prices has had profound impacts on the Bolivian economy. We have investigated the relations of commodity prices with the main indicators of macroeconomic performance. We have found significant ties in our statistical analysis. An important question that we address concerns the consequences of the transitory export boom on the long term rate of growth of the economy. Also, given the importance of fiscal linkages with windfall income, we examined the procyclality of public expenditures based on an analysis of correlations of the cyclical components. We find positive but weak correlations. With export booms, consumption increases but also saving rates. Savings have been invested in foreign assets and, to a large extent, in construction. We find that commodity prices and per capita value added in the construction sector are co-integrated, suggesting a long term relationship. Also we looked into the real linkages of the hydrocarbons sector with other sectors of the economy through an Input-Output analysis. Finally, we have conducted a set of simulations, with a small Computable General Equilibrium Model adapted to the Bolivian conditions, to trace the domestic price and quantity effects of the commodity price increases. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC

Suggested Citation

  • Loza, Melissa & Morales, Juan Antonio, 2018. "Export Boom and Economic Performance: Bolivia 2004-2015," Documentos de trabajo 1/2018, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2018_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price supercycle; transitory trade shocks; fiscal effects; procyclality; Bolivian economy; Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development

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