IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/eabrwp/2018_004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

EDB Macroreview, December 2018. Macroeconomic Stability Tested

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In 2018, the EDB member countries faced a number of challenges to regional macroeconomic stability. The main risks resulted from the global economic slowdown, growing protectionist trends in world trade and increased volatility in developing markets. Higher geopolitical tensions also had an impact on the regional macroeconomic situation. Despite the growing external challenges, the macroeconomic situation remained stable in the region, with most EDB countries’ fiscal policies aimed at achieving more sustainable economic growth and a balanced monetary policy. The favorable oil price during most of 2018 was another factor behind the improvement in the region’s economy. All the EDB member countries recorded positive growth rates in 2018, which we estimate at 2.0% overall. Inflation reached a record low and will stay within the central banks’ target ranges for 2018. The EDB member countries’ mutual trade grew by 12.5% versus January to September 2017. The 2017 and 2018 economic growth in the region was significantly assisted by eased monetary policies. Yet the recovery cycle is ending, while the inflationary risks are high. These factors combine to limit monetary policy’s ability to continue stimulating the economy. With the external risks mounting, it is increasingly important to find new sources of sustainable growth, in particular, by means of reforms intended to raise the economies’ efficiency and improve the investment climate. In the special report the team of authors gives recommendations concerning economic policy measures that might help overcome an economy’s structural and institutional limitations, taking Armenia as an example. Analysis of the structural gaps existing in Armenia allows us to identify the areas of reform that are being successful – as well as those which are lagging. In 2018, some member-states’ authorities initiated structural reforms. The Government of the Russian Federation announced a package of structural changes intended to stimulate sustainable growth of investment activity and pursue long-term social objectives. In Kazakhstan, presidential initiatives announced in the spring and fall of 2018 are largely intended to enhance the population’s welfare by improving the business environment and developing human capital. Such reforms may help improve the quality of Kazakhstan’s economic growth in the long run by making it more sustainable and based on an inclusive model of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuznetsov, Aleksei & Berdigulova, Aigul, 2018. "EDB Macroreview, December 2018. Macroeconomic Stability Tested," Working Papers 2018-4, Eurasian Development Bank, Chief Economist Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2018_004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eabr.org/upload/iblock/dda/EABR_Macroview_EN_12_18.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2013. "Republic of Armenia : Accumulation, Competition, and Connectivity," World Bank Publications - Reports 16032, The World Bank Group.
    2. World Bank, 2017. "Republic of Armenia," World Bank Publications - Reports 28328, The World Bank Group.
    3. Austrian Institute of Economic Research, 2006. "Competitiveness Report 2006," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 28814.
    4. Mr. Norbert Funke & Asel Isakova & Maksym Ivanyna, 2017. "Identifying Structural Reform Gaps in Emerging Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia," IMF Working Papers 2017/082, International Monetary Fund.
    5. World Bank, 2013. "Republic of Armenia : Accumulation, Competition, and Connectivity," World Bank Publications - Reports 16781, The World Bank Group.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicole A. MATHYS & Jaime DE MELO, 2010. "Trade and Climate Change: The Challenges Ahead," Working Papers P14, FERDI.
    2. David, Paul A. & Shapiro, Joseph S., 2008. "Community-based production of open-source software: What do we know about the developers who participate?," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 364-398, December.
    3. Bottasso, Anna & Conti, Maurizio & Ferrari, Claudio & Tei, Alessio, 2014. "Ports and regional development: A spatial analysis on a panel of European regions," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 44-55.
    4. Irene Fafaliou & Michael Polemis, 2013. "Competitiveness of the Euro Zone Manufacturing: A Panel Data Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(1), pages 45-61, February.
    5. Gauguier, Jean-Jacques, 2009. "L’industrialisation de l’Open Source," Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine, Paris Dauphine University, number 123456789/4388 edited by Toledano, Joëlle.
    6. Thomas Cleff & Klaus Rennings, 2011. "Theoretical and Empirical Evidence of Timing-to-Market and Lead Market Strategies for Successful Environmental Innovation," Discussion Papers dp11-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    7. Deepa Chandrasekaran & Gerard J. Tellis, 2008. "Global Takeoff of New Products: Culture, Wealth, or Vanishing Differences?," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(5), pages 844-860, 09-10.
    8. Dula Borozan, 2008. "Regional Competitiveness: Some Conceptual Issues and Policy Implications," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 4, pages 50-63, May.
    9. Justin Fraselle & Sabine Louise Limbourg & Laura Vidal, 2021. "Cost and Environmental Impacts of a Mixed Fleet of Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
    10. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2021. "Structural Tax Reforms and Public Spending Efficiency," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 1017-1061, November.
    11. Patricia Laurens & Christian Le Bas & Stéphane Lhuillery & Antoine Schoen, 2017. "The determinants of cleaner energy innovations of the world’s largest firms: the impact of firm learning and knowledge capital," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 311-333, May.
    12. Darko Tipuric & Veljko Trivun & Mia Mrgud & Maja Sukleva, 2013. "Protection Of Minority Shareholders In Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro And Serbia," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 9(2), pages 55-70.
    13. Luigi Reggi & Sergio Scicchitano, 2011. "European Regions Financing Public e-Services: the Case of EU Structural Funds," Working Papers 1110, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2011.
    14. Shauna Phillips & Fredoun Z. Ahmadi-Esfahani, 2010. "Export market participation, spillovers, and foreign direct investment in Australian food manufacturing," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 329-347.
    15. Misato Sato & Karsten Neuhoff & Verena Graichen & Katja Schumacher & Felix Matthes, 2013. "Sectors under scrutiny � Evaluation of indicators to assess the risk of carbon leakage in the UK and Germany," GRI Working Papers 113, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    16. Sergio Aquino de Souza & Eduardo Pontual Ribeiro & Gerson Carvalho, 2010. "Documento de Trabalho 01/2010 - Delimitação de Mercado Relevante," Documentos de Trabalho 12010, Conselho Administrativo de Defesa Econômica (Cade), Departamento de Estudos Econômicos.
    17. Elvira Sapienza, 2009. "FDI and Growth in Central and Southern Eastern Europe," Quaderni DSEMS 12-2009, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche, Matematiche e Statistiche, Universita' di Foggia.
    18. Adeoye, I.B. & Oni, O.A., 2014. "Competitiveness and Effects of Policies on Plantain Production Systems in Southwestern Nigeria," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, December.
    19. Abdelkader Djeflat & Yevgeny Kuznetsov, 2014. "Innovation Policy Reforms, Emerging Role Models and Bridge Institutions: Evidence from North African Economies," African Journal of Science, Technology, Innovation and Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 467-479, September.
    20. Thomas Cleff & Klaus Rennings, 2014. "Are There Any First And Second Mover Advantages For Eco-Pioneers? Lead Market Strategies For Environmental Innovation," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 10, pages 164-189.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomy; forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU countries; economic growth; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2018_004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yaroslav Lissovolik (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceedbru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.