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Corridor Developments for Transforming Central Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Kumagai, Satoru

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Gokan, Toshitaka

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Tsubota, Kenmei

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

We offer a spatial computable general equilibrium model (SCGE) to evaluate the potential regional economic impacts of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation Program (CAREC) corridors and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR). We base our model on spatial economics and incorporate sub-national data over the regions. We also equip the model with multimodal choices among trucks, trains, airplanes, and ships, which are crucial for the analysis of landlocked regions like Central Asia. Through scenario-based simulations, we find that economic impacts are not spatially limited to the regions with the projects. It is probable that population and industries may shift to regions with better connectivity by virtue of corridor developments. There would also be synergy effects from the implementation of both the CAREC and the TITR corridor, meaning that the two projects have a complementary relationship. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the economic impacts of the projects may derive largely from the growth in the service sector, suggesting the need for additional public investments, such as special economic zones, to boost industries other than services.

Suggested Citation

  • Kumagai, Satoru & Gokan, Toshitaka & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2021. "Corridor Developments for Transforming Central Asia," ADBI Working Papers 1270, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:1270
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Isono, Ikumo & Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei & Gokan, Toshitaka, 2016. "Comparing the economic impacts of Asian integration by computational simulation analysis," IDE Discussion Papers 567, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    2. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    3. Watanabe, Daisuke & Shibasaki, Ryuichi & Arai, Hirofumi, 2021. "Logistics Policy Analysis and Network Model Simulation for Cross-Border Transport in the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor: Global Intermodal Logistics Network Simulation (GLINS) Model," ADBI Working Papers 1269, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    impacts of infrastructures; economic development; spatial computable general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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