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Myanmar: Long-Term Scenarios for Sustained Macroeconomic Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Roland-Holst, David

    (University of California Berkeley)

  • Park, Cyn-Young

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

We use a dynamic forecasting model to evaluate a wide array of opportunities for sustained economic growth in Myanmar. Our simulation results suggest that the government of Myanmar can advance potential growth drivers, by maintaining a stable macroeconomic environment that is conducive to private investment, promoting human capital development and public investment, facilitating domestic and international private agencies for market development, and strengthening regional economic integration. The government needs a balanced approach to sector interests to promote inclusive and equitable growth. Increasing agricultural productivity, for example, will not only benefit the country’s rural poor majority, but it will also release labor resources to facilitate industrial and service sector development. Conversely, industrial and urban development will facilitate agrifood supply chains, improving market access and real incomes in rural areas. Public commitments to improving infrastructure, education, and public health will also be essential to realizing Myanmar’s vast economic potential.

Suggested Citation

  • Roland-Holst, David & Park, Cyn-Young, 2015. "Myanmar: Long-Term Scenarios for Sustained Macroeconomic Growth," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 429, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0429
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    Cited by:

    1. Henry Kankwamba & Mariam Kadzamira & Karl Pauw, 2018. "How diversified is cropping in Malawi? Patterns, determinants and policy implications," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 10(2), pages 323-338, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Calibrated General Equilibrium (CGE) model; economic forecasting; Myanmar; policy simulation; potential growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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