IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbewp/0104.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

An Empirical Analysis of East Asia's Pre-crisis Daily Exchange Rates

Author

Listed:
  • Alba, Joseph Dennis

    (Nanyang Technological University)

  • Park, Donghyun

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

The exchange rate peg to the United States dollar is widely believed to have been a major cause of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998. Rigid exchange rates may have invited massive capital inflows into East Asia by creating a false sense of security among investors. A substantial empirical literature examines the actual behavior of pre-crisis exchange rates in the region. This paper seeks to contribute to this literature by using daily data compared to other studies that tend to use monthly data and other lower-frequency data. The paper applies the GARCH-M model to investigate the statistical properties of East Asia's bilateral exchange rates vis-a-vis the United States dollar. Systematic relationships among the dollar exchange rates of the regional currencies are sought. The results confirm the rigidity of East Asia's pre-crisis bilateral dollar exchanges and support the existence of systematic relationships consistent with financial contagion. The findings lend some support to the region's post-crisis moves toward more flexible exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Alba, Joseph Dennis & Park, Donghyun, 2007. "An Empirical Analysis of East Asia's Pre-crisis Daily Exchange Rates," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 104, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/empirical-analysis-east-asias-pre-crisis-daily-exchange-rates
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
    2. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar & Iman Sugema, 2003. "Why was there a precrisis capital inflow boom in Southeast Asia?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-283.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kearney, Colm & Muckley, Cal, 2008. "Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 870-885, December.
    2. Mohamed CHIKHI & Claude DIEBOLT, 2022. "Testing the weak form efficiency of the French ETF market with the LSTAR-ANLSTGARCH approach using a semiparametric estimation," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 13, pages 228-253, June.
    3. Pan, Qunxing & Li, Peng & Du, Xiuli, 2023. "An improved FIGARCH model with the fractional differencing operator (1-νL)d," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    4. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    5. Colavecchio, Roberta & Funke, Michael, 2008. "Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 635-648, December.
    6. Isao Ishida & Toshiaki Watanabe, 2009. "Modeling and Forecasting the Volatility of the Nikkei 225 Realized Volatility Using the ARFIMA-GARCH Model," CARF F-Series CARF-F-145, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    7. M. Angeles Carnero & Daniel Peña & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Estimating and Forecasting GARCH Volatility in the Presence of Outiers," Working Papers. Serie AD 2008-13, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    8. Amengual, Dante & Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2013. "Sequential estimation of shape parameters in multivariate dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 233-249.
    9. F. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Estimation and Testing of Dynamic Models with Generalised Hyperbolic Innovations," Working Papers wp2004_0411, CEMFI.
    10. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2017. "Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Lie Groups of Linear Transformations," MPRA Paper 79623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Aloui, Chaker & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Hamida, Hela ben, 2015. "Global factors driving structural changes in the co-movement between sharia stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 311-329.
    12. Jean-Jacques Forneron, 2023. "Occasionally Misspecified," Papers 2312.05342, arXiv.org.
    13. C. Gouriéroux & A. Monfort & J.‐M. Zakoïan, 2019. "Consistent Pseudo‐Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Groups of Transformations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 327-345, January.
    14. Klar, B. & Lindner, F. & Meintanis, S.G., 2012. "Specification tests for the error distribution in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3587-3598.
    15. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Optimal currency baskets and the third currency phenomenon: exchange rate policy in Southeast Asia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 1053-1073.
    16. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2021. "Specification tests for non‐Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(3), pages 683-742, July.
    17. Verhoeven, Peter & McAleer, Michael, 2004. "Fat tails and asymmetry in financial volatility models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 351-361.
    18. Jing-Yi Lai, 2012. "An empirical study of the impact of skewness and kurtosis on hedging decisions," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1827-1837, December.
    19. Yining Chen, 2015. "Semiparametric Time Series Models with Log-concave Innovations: Maximum Likelihood Estimation and its Consistency," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    20. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Drost, Feike C., 1999. "Efficiency comparisons of maximum-likelihood-based estimators in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 93-111, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate peg; financial contagion; GARCH-M model; pre-crisis exchange rates; United States dollar;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Orlee Velarde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eradbph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.