IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rim/rimwps/18-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Specification tests for non-Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriele Fiorentini

    (Università di Firenze, Italy; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Enrique Sentana

    (CEMFI, Spain)

Abstract

We propose generalised DWH specification tests which simultaneously compare three or more likelihood-based estimators of conditional mean and variance parameters in multivariate conditionally heteroskedastic dynamic regression models. Our tests are useful for Garch models and in many empirically relevant macro and finance applications involving Vars and multivariate regressions. To design powerful and reliable tests, we determine the rank deficiencies of the differences between the estimators' asymptotic covariance matrices under the null of correct specification, and take into account that some parameters remain consistently estimated under the alternative of distributional misspecification. Finally, we provide finite sample results through Monte Carlo simulations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2018. "Specification tests for non-Gaussian maximum likelihood estimators," Working Paper series 18-22, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:18-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://rcea.org/RePEc/pdf/wp18-22.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wu, De-Min, 1973. "Alternative Tests of Independence Between Stochastic Regressors and Disturbances," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(4), pages 733-750, July.
    2. Andrews, Donald W. K., 1987. "Asymptotic Results for Generalized Wald Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 348-358, June.
    3. Amengual, Dante & Sentana, Enrique, 2010. "A comparison of mean-variance efficiency tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 154(1), pages 16-34, January.
    4. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2009. "Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 105-121, December.
    5. Ling, Shiqing & McAleer, Michael, 2003. "Asymptotic Theory For A Vector Arma-Garch Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 280-310, April.
    6. Hodgson, Douglas J & Vorkink, Keith P, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Conditional Asset-Pricing Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(2), pages 269-283, April.
    7. Whitney K. Newey & Douglas G. Steigerwald, 1997. "Asymptotic Bias for Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood Estimators in Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 587-600, May.
    8. Christian Bontemps & Nour Meddahi, 2012. "Testing distributional assumptions: A GMM aproach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 978-1012, September.
    9. Ruud, Paul A., 2000. "An Introduction to Classical Econometric Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195111644.
    10. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    11. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria & Drost, Feike C., 1999. "Efficiency comparisons of maximum-likelihood-based estimators in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 93-111, November.
    12. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2022. "Moment tests of independent components," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 429-474, May.
    13. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2018. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 799-815, December.
    14. Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(4), pages 594-616.
    15. Drost, Feike C. & Klaassen, Chris A. J., 1997. "Efficient estimation in semiparametric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 193-221, November.
    16. Giovanni Angelini & Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Giovanni Caggiano & Luca Fanelli, 2019. "Uncertainty across volatility regimes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(3), pages 437-455, April.
    17. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2003. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroscedastic Dynamic Regression Models with Student t Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 532-546, October.
    18. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464.
    19. Hafner, Christian M. & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2007. "Semiparametric Multivariate Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 251-280, April.
    20. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 657-681, October.
    21. Bai, Jushan & Chen, Zhihong, 2008. "Testing multivariate distributions in GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 19-36, March.
    22. P. C. B. Phillips & S. N. Durlauf, 1986. "Multiple Time Series Regression with Integrated Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 473-495.
    23. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2019. "Consistent non-Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 321-358.
    24. Engle, Robert F. & Gallo, Giampiero M., 2006. "A multiple indicators model for volatility using intra-daily data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 3-27.
    25. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    26. Jianqing Fan & Lei Qi & Dacheng Xiu, 2014. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of GARCH Models With Heavy-Tailed Likelihoods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 178-191, April.
    27. Linton, Oliver, 1993. "Adaptive Estimation in ARCH Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 539-569, August.
    28. Tauchen, George, 1985. "Diagnostic testing and evaluation of maximum likelihood models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 415-443.
    29. Keith Vorkink & Douglas J. Hodgson & Oliver Linton, 2002. "Testing the capital asset pricing model efficiently under elliptical symmetry: a semiparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 617-639.
    30. Markus Brunnermeier & Darius Palia & Karthik A. Sastry & Christopher A. Sims, 2021. "Feedbacks: Financial Markets and Economic Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(6), pages 1845-1879, June.
    31. Bierens, Herman J. & Wang, Li, 2012. "Integrated Conditional Moment Tests For Parametric Conditional Distributions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 328-362, April.
    32. Enrique Sentana, 1999. "Econometric applications of positive rank-one modifications of the symmetric factorization of a positive semi-definite matrix," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 79-90.
    33. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2023. "Discrete mixtures of normals pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 643-665.
    34. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Distributional Tests in Multivariate Dynamic Models with Normal and Student-t Innovations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 133-152, February.
    35. Amengual, Dante & Carrasco, Marine & Sentana, Enrique, 2020. "Testing distributional assumptions using a continuum of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 655-689.
    36. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1989. "Testing for Consistency using Artificial Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 363-384, December.
    37. Lanne, Markku & Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2017. "Identification and estimation of non-Gaussian structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 288-304.
    38. Amengual, Dante & Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2013. "Sequential estimation of shape parameters in multivariate dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 233-249.
    39. Unknown, 1986. "Letters," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(4), pages 1-9.
    40. Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-938, July.
    41. Francq, Christian & Lepage, Guillaume & Zakoïan, Jean-Michel, 2011. "Two-stage non Gaussian QML estimation of GARCH models and testing the efficiency of the Gaussian QMLE," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(2), pages 246-257.
    42. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
    43. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2007. "On the Efficiency and Consistency of Likelihood Estimation in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroskedastic Dynamic Regression Models," Working Papers wp2007_0713, CEMFI.
    44. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 681-700, May.
    45. Drost, F.C. & Klaassen, C.A.J. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994. "Adaptive estimation in time-series models," Discussion Paper 1994-88, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    46. Gourieroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Trognon, Alain, 1984. "Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Methods: Applications to Poisson Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 701-720, May.
    47. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages 85-118, Suppl. De.
    48. Ruud, Paul A., 1984. "Tests of Specification in Econometrics," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4kq8m0hf, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    49. Holly, Alberto, 1982. "A Remark on Hausman's Specification Test," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 749-759, May.
    50. Newey, Whitney K, 1985. "Maximum Likelihood Specification Testing and Conditional Moment Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(5), pages 1047-1070, September.
    51. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Testing Parametric Conditional Distributions of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 531-549, August.
    52. Engle, Robert F & Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1991. "Semiparametric ARCH Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(4), pages 345-359, October.
    53. McDonald, James B. & Newey, Whitney K., 1988. "Partially Adaptive Estimation of Regression Models via the Generalized T Distribution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 428-457, December.
    54. Pietro BALESTRA & Alberto HOLLY, 1990. "A General Kronecker Formula for the Moments of the Multivariate Normal Distribution," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 9002, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    55. Holly, Alberto & Monfort, Alain, 1986. "Some useful equivalence properties of Hausman's test," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 39-43.
    56. Sun, Yiguo & Stengos, Thanasis, 2006. "Semiparametric efficient adaptive estimation of asymmetric GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 373-386, July.
    57. Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2004. "Constrained Indirect Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(4), pages 945-973.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2019. "Consistent non-Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 321-358.
    2. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2022. "Moment tests of independent components," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 429-474, May.
    3. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2023. "Discrete mixtures of normals pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 643-665.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2021. "New testing approaches for mean–variance predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 516-538.
    2. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2019. "Consistent non-Gaussian pseudo maximum likelihood estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 321-358.
    3. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2007. "On the Efficiency and Consistency of Likelihood Estimation in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroskedastic Dynamic Regression Models," Working Papers wp2007_0713, CEMFI.
    4. Amengual, Dante & Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2013. "Sequential estimation of shape parameters in multivariate dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 233-249.
    5. repec:rim:rimwps:38-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Tests for Serial Dependence in Static, Non-Gaussian Factor Models," Working Papers wp2012_1211, CEMFI.
    7. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2009. "Dynamic Specification Tests for Static Factor Models," Working Papers wp2009_0912, CEMFI.
    8. C. Gouriéroux & A. Monfort & J.‐M. Zakoïan, 2019. "Consistent Pseudo‐Maximum Likelihood Estimators and Groups of Transformations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 327-345, January.
    9. Luc Bauwens & Sébastien Laurent & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109, January.
    10. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique, 2023. "Discrete mixtures of normals pseudo maximum likelihood estimators of structural vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 643-665.
    11. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Dufour, Jean-Marie, 2020. "Exogeneity tests, incomplete models, weak identification and non-Gaussian distributions: Invariance and finite-sample distributional theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 390-418.
    12. Yining Chen, 2015. "Semiparametric Time Series Models with Log-concave Innovations: Maximum Likelihood Estimation and its Consistency," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-31, March.
    13. Andreou, E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2004. "An Alternative Asymptotic Analysis of Residual-Based Statistics," Other publications TiSEM 93fe16c1-9f21-4dab-9b73-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Javier Mencía & Enrique Sentana, 2012. "Distributional Tests in Multivariate Dynamic Models with Normal and Student-t Innovations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 133-152, February.
    15. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin, 2012. "Specification tests with weak and invalid instruments," Working Papers 15063, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 26 Jun 2012.
    16. Dante Amengual & Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2022. "Moment tests of independent components," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 429-474, May.
    17. MacKinnon, James G, 1992. "Model Specification Tests and Artificial Regressions," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 102-146, March.
    18. Jianqing Fan & Lei Qi & Dacheng Xiu, 2014. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of GARCH Models With Heavy-Tailed Likelihoods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 178-191, April.
    19. Gouriéroux, Christian & Monfort, Alain & Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 2017. "Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood and Lie Groups of Linear Transformations," MPRA Paper 79623, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Hafner, Christian M. & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2007. "Semiparametric Multivariate Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 251-280, April.
    21. Bartolucci, Francesco & Belotti, Federico & Peracchi, Franco, 2015. "Testing for time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity in generalized linear models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 111-123.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Durbin-Wu-Hausman Tests; Partial Adaptivity; Semiparametric Estimators; Singular Covariance Matrices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:18-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marco Savioli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rcfeait.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.