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A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Qin, Duo

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Cagas, Marie Anne

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Ducanes, Geoffrey

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Quising , Pilipinas

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • He, Xinhua

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Liu, Rui

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Liu, Shiguo

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the economy of People's Republic of China. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general simple dynamic specification approach is adopted in order to ensure the best possible blend of a priori long-run theories with a posteriori identified short-run factors, as well as country-specific features. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising , Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo, 2006. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 81, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0081
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xinhua He & Duo Qin, 2004. "Aggregate Investment in People’s Republic of China: Some Empirical Evidence," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 99-117.
    2. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model At Forty," IMF Working Papers 1997/049, International Monetary Fund.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconometric model; Peoples Republic of China; quarterly; economy; equilibrium-correction form;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

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