IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbewp/0081.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Qin, Duo

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Cagas, Marie Anne

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Ducanes, Geoffrey

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Quising , Pilipinas

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • He, Xinhua

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Liu, Rui

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Liu, Shiguo

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the economy of People's Republic of China. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general simple dynamic specification approach is adopted in order to ensure the best possible blend of a priori long-run theories with a posteriori identified short-run factors, as well as country-specific features. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising , Pilipinas & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo, 2006. "A Small Macroeconometric Model of the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 81, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.adb.org/publications/small-macroeconometric-model-peoples-republic-china
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xinhua He & Duo Qin, 2004. "Aggregate Investment in People’s Republic of China: Some Empirical Evidence," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(01), pages 99-117.
    2. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model At Forty," IMF Working Papers 1997/049, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2015. "‘Policy Externalisation’ Inherent Failure: International Financial Institutions’ Conditionality in Developing Countries," Post-Print hal-01668367, HAL.
    2. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Needham, Duncan J., 2018. "Historical reasons for the focus on broad monetary aggregates in post-World War II Britain and the ‘Seven Years War’ with the IMF," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 87364, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. repec:ilo:ilowps:455446 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "The Effects of Debt Intolerance and Public Debt Sustainability on Credit Ratings: Evidence From European Economies," Working Papers 011, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
    5. Alice Nicole Sindzingre, 2021. "Truth vs justification: contrasting heterodox and mainstream thinking on development via the example of austerity in Africa," CEPN Working Papers hal-03139457, HAL.
    6. Gerald Epstein & James Heintz & Léonce Ndikumana & Grace Chang, 2011. "Employment, Poverty and Economic Development in Madagascar," Published Studies ndikumana_ilo2010, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    7. Polak, Jacques J., 1998. "The IMF monetary model at 40," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-410, July.
    8. Jonas Kibala Kuma, 2011. "Contribution à l’explication de la volatilité du taux de change en R.D Congo : Approche par la modélisation VAR," Working Papers hal-02424930, HAL.
    9. Ulrich Fritsche, 1999. "Konzeptionelle Schwächen von IWF-Stabilisierungsprogrammen im Kontext der Asienkrise," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 68(1), pages 110-117.
    10. Thilak Ranaweera, 2004. "Ghost of the financing gap: an overlooked aspect of the aid debate," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 637-652.
    11. Sindzingre, Alice, 2021. "Truth vs. justification: Contrasting heterodox and mainstream thinking on development via the example of austerity in Africa," IPE Working Papers 155/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    12. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2007. "A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 814-822, September.
    13. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2015. "La inflación bajo una perspectiva monetaria: Un vistazo al período de la postguerra / Inflation under a monetary framework: a view to the postwar period," Borradores de Economia 14169, Banco de la Republica.
    14. Alice N. Sindzingre, 2015. "Whatever Inconsistencies and Effects? Explaining the Resilience of the Policy Reforms Applied to Developing Countries," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 159-178, August.
    15. Zaki, Mokhlis Y., 2001. "IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs and their Critics: Evidence from the Recent Experience of Egypt," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1867-1883, November.
    16. Duo QIN & Xinhua HE & Pilipinas QUISING & Shiguo LIU, 2010. "Modeling Monetary Policies in China (PRC)," EcoMod2004 330600115, EcoMod.
    17. Javier G. Gómez-Pineda, 2016. "La flotación de 1957 y la estabilidad macroeconómica," Borradores de Economia 938, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2001. "Implementation of Monetary Policy and the Central Bank's Balance Sheet," IMF Working Papers 2001/149, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Alice Sindzingre, 2021. "Assessing the Concept of Change in International Financial Institutions' Theories and Policies: The Example of Sub-Saharan African Countries," Post-Print halshs-03625137, HAL.
    20. Bogdan FIRTESCU, 2012. "Growth economic models and their implications to financial policy during transition. A theoretical approach," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 895-902, May.
    21. Ebru Voyvoda & Erinc Yeldan, 2015. "Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Turkey," Working papers wpaper109, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconometric model; Peoples Republic of China; quarterly; economy; equilibrium-correction form;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Orlee Velarde (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eradbph.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.