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Export or Domestic-Led Growth in Asia?

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe, Jesus

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Lim, Joseph

    (Ateneo de Manila University)

Abstract

In recent years, some developing Asian countries claim to have started shifting emphasis from export-led to domestic demand–led growth policies with a view to achieving a more balanced growth strategy. This paper evaluates empirically how far this shift has gone. The evaluation—based on an analysis of five countries (the People’s Republic of China, India, the Republic of Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand)—finds no evidence that the period 1993–2003 has been marked by such a shift at the expense of a decline in net exports. It also finds that periods of expansionary domestic demand and deteriorating net exports signaled an ensuing crisis. This should serve as an early warning system.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe, Jesus & Lim, Joseph, 2005. "Export or Domestic-Led Growth in Asia?," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 69, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0069
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    Cited by:

    1. Duc Minh Pham & Deepak Mishra & Kee-Cheok Cheong & John Arnold & Anh Minh Trinh & Huyen Thi Ngoc Ngo & Hien Thi Phuong Nguyen, 2013. "Trade Facilitation, Value Creation, and Competiveness : Policy Implications for Vietnam's Economic Growth, Summary Report," World Bank Publications - Reports 16786, The World Bank Group.
    2. Jörg Bibow, 2007. "Global Imbalances, Bretton Woods II, and Euroland’s Role in All This," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Jörg Bibow & Andrea Terzi (ed.), Euroland and the World Economy, chapter 1, pages 15-42, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. Tampubolon, Jongkers, 2023. "Food and agricultural sector in Indonesia’s economic growth during COVID-19 pandemic: an ARDL approach," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 9(2), June.
    4. Bruno Jetin & Ozan Ekin Kurt, 2016. "Functional income distribution and growth in Thailand: A post Keynesian econometric analysis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 334-360, July.
    5. Sabine Herrmann & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(3), pages 531-550, October.
    6. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
    7. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    8. Solikin M. Juhro, 2014. "THE ROLE OF THE CENTRAL BANK IN PROMOTING SUSTAINABLE GROWTH: Perspectives on the Implementation of Flexible ITF in Indonesia," Working Papers WP/17/2014, Bank Indonesia.
    9. Cristian Dragos Turcan & Viorel - Costin Banta & Sabin – Alexandru Babeanu, 2021. "Initiation And Planning Of An Information System. A Case Study," Annals of University of Craiova - Economic Sciences Series, University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(49), pages 43-48, August.
    10. Charles, Sébastien & El Karouni, Ilyess, 2008. "La transformation postsocialiste chinoise : ouverture économique et contrainte extérieure," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 84(4), pages 391-413, Décembre.
    11. Yağmur Sağlam & Hüseyin Avni Egeli, 2018. "A Comparison of Domestic Demand and Export-led Growth Strategies for European Transition Economies," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(3), pages 156-173, August.
    12. Nazneen Shahid, 2013. "Export-Led Growth Strategy: Tool for Economic Development in India," Indian Journal of Commerce and Management Studies, Educational Research Multimedia & Publications,India, vol. 4(1), pages 58-64, January.
    13. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2008. "Modelo de Crescimento Baseado nas Exportações: Evidências empíricas para Chile, Brasil e México, em uma perspectiva Não Linear," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807170923500, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Bruno Jetin, 2012. "Distribution of income, labour productivity and competitiveness: is the Thai labour regime sustainable?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 36(4), pages 895-917.
    15. Ekaterina Arapova, 2018. "Determinants Of Household Final Consumption Expenditures In Asian Countries: A Panel Model, 1991-2015," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 18(1), pages 121-140.
    16. Ekaterina Y. ARAPOVA, 2017. "Ex-Post Analysis Of The Influence Of Tariff Liberalisation On Asean Exports," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 135-154.
    17. Ernesto Screpanti, 2010. "La grande crisi e l’imperialismo globale," Department of Economics University of Siena 590, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    18. Neha JAIN, 2022. "A comparative analysis of export-led and domestic demand-led growth hypotheses in BRICS economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(631), S), pages 125-138, Summer.
    19. Duc Minh Pham & Deepak Mishra & Kee-Cheok Cheong & John Arnold & Anh Minh Trinh & Huyen Thi Ngoc Ngo & Hien Thi Phuong Nguyen, 2013. "Trade Facilitation, Value Creation, and Competiveness : Policy Implications for Vietnam's Economic Growth, Volume 1," World Bank Publications - Reports 16784, The World Bank Group.
    20. Dollar, David, 2007. "Asian century or multi-polar century ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4174, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    balanced growth strategy; developing countries; domestic demand; economic growth; net exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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