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DNDFs:a more efficient way to intervene in FX markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Marcio Garcia

    (Department of Economics PUC-Rio)

  • Tony Volpon

    (Nomura Securities, NY)

Abstract

We analyze the unique intervention strategy of the BCB using DNDFs (Domestic-Non-Deliverable Forwards): currency forwards that settle in domestic currency. We show the mechanisms through which DNDFs provide efficient hedging instruments for economic agents in times of reduced capital inflows and FX volatility, and how the use of DNDFs provide incentives for commercial banks to bring dollar to Brazil and so help finance the current account deficit. We discuss the limits to this strategy, which will work insofar as economic agents believe they can go from DNDFs to spot USD, i.e., that convertibility risk is negligible. We also have described how the strategy creates increasing positions within the commercial banking system (basis and roll over risks), generating possible threats to financial stability. The gain of not having to sell down hard currency reserves in the present strategy should be weighed against these risks. We conclude that the BCB’s strategy does provide an alternative intervention strategy, which is made possible only due to specific features of the Brazilian financial markets and its legislation. It is not clear that other emerging markets would profit from adopting such intervention strategy in FX markets

Suggested Citation

  • Marcio Garcia & Tony Volpon, 2014. "DNDFs:a more efficient way to intervene in FX markets?," Textos para discussão 621, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    • Handle: RePEc:rio:texdis:621
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Santos, Francisco Luna & Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto & Medeiros, Marcelo Cunha, 2015. "Price Discovery in Brazilian FX Markets," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 35(1), October.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2005. "Emerging Capital Markets in Turmoil: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262033348, December.
    3. Wenxin Du & Jesse Schreger, 2013. "Local Currency Sovereign Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "CAPITAL FLOWS AND CAPITAL-MARKET CRISES: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 35-54, November.
    5. Glick,Reuven (ed.), 2011. "Managing Capital Flows and Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521169349, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Polo, Andrea & Gonzalez, Rodrigo & Khametshin, Dmitry & Peydró, José-Luis, 2018. "Hedger of Last Resort: Evidence from Brazilian FX Interventions, Local Credit and Global Financial Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 12817, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Robert Neil McCauley & Chang Shu, 2016. "Non-deliverable forwards: impact of currency internationalisation and derivatives reform," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    3. Christian Upper & Marcos Valli, 2016. "Emerging derivatives markets?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Martin Vesna, 2020. "Intervention Strategies in Foreign Exchange Market," Economic Themes, Sciendo, vol. 58(3), pages 381-399, September.
    5. Chamon, Marcos & Garcia, Márcio & Souza, Laura, 2017. "FX interventions in Brazil: A synthetic control approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 157-168.
    6. Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia, 2015. "Capital Controls and Implications for Surveillance and coordination: Brazil and Latin America," Textos para discussão 631, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    7. Cerqueira, Luiz Fernando & Feijó, Carmem Aparecida & Gonçalves, Thallis Macedo de Assis, 2023. "Pass-through of exchange rate shocks in Brazil as a small open economy," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

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