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The Sub-Prime Crisis and UK Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Martin

    (Brunel University, Uxbridge, UK)

  • Costas Milas

    (Keele University, Staffordshire, UK and The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy)

Abstract

The "sub-prime" crisis, which led to major turbulence in global financial markets beginning in mid-2007, has posed major challenges for monetary policymakers. We analyse the impact on monetary policy of the widening differential between policy rates and the 3-month Libor rate, the benchmark for private sector interest rates. We show that the optimal monetary policy rule should include the determinants of this differential, adding an extra layer of complexity to the problems facing policymakers. Our estimates reveal significant effects of risk and liquidity measures, suggesting the widening differential between base rates and Libor was largely driven by a sharp increase in unsecured lending risk. We calculate that the crisis increased Libor by up to 60 basis points; in response base rates fell further and quicker than would otherwise have happened as policymakers sought to offset some of the contractionary effects of the sub-prime crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2008. "The Sub-Prime Crisis and UK Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 31_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:31_08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    2. François-Louis Michaud & Christian Upper, 2008. "What drives interbank rates? Evidence from the Libor panel," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    4. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    5. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dr. Petra Gerlach & Dr. Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
    2. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 166, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Belke, Ansgar & Klose, Jens, 2013. "Modifying Taylor reaction functions in the presence of the zero‐lower‐bound — Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 515-527.
    4. repec:eid:wpaper:05/10 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2010. "(How) Do the ECB and the Fed React to Financial Market Uncertainty? – The Taylor Rule in Times of Crisis," Ruhr Economic Papers 0166, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
    7. E Philip Davis, 2008. "Liquidity, Financial Crises and the Lender of Last Resort – How Much of a Departure is the Sub-prime Crisis?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Paul Bloxham & Christopher Kent (ed.),Lessons from the Financial Turmoil of 2007 and 2008, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    8. Siregar, Reza & Wiranto, Willeam, 2009. "In the Midst of Global Financial Slowdown: the Indonesian Experience," MPRA Paper 19657, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Heung Soon Jung & Dong Jin Lee & Tae Hyo Gwon & Se Jin Yun, 2015. "Reference Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Korea," Working Papers 2015-27, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    10. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2010. "Financial Stability and Monetary Policy," Working Paper series 12_10, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Milas, Costas & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2012. "Financial conditions and nonlinearities in the European Central Bank (ECB) reaction function: In-sample and out-of-sample assessment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 173-189, January.
    12. Ansgar Belke & Jens Klose, 2012. "Modifying Taylor Reaction Functions in Presence of the Zero-Lower-Bound – Evidence for the ECB and the Fed," Ruhr Economic Papers 0343, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    13. repec:zbw:rwirep:0343 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0166 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Thanassis Kazanas & Elias Tzavalis, 2011. "Unveiling the monetary policy rule in euro area," Working Papers 130, Bank of Greece.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimal monetary policy; sub-prime crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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