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Post-Covid Recovery Scenarios for the Travel Industry

Author

Listed:
  • Kaitila, Ville
  • Lehmus, Markku

Abstract

We assess the recovery of the Finnish travel industry from the covid19 pandemic in 2021–2023. The subject of the study is air and sea passenger traffic, the food service (restaurant) and accommodation industries. The Covid19 virus has proven to be capable of mutations, and the pandemic is by no means over. This increases uncertainty, especially with regard to the recovery of international travel. The travel industry will recover with vaccine coverage and when the pandemic will otherwise subside, but it will take a long time for business travel and intercontinental air transport to recover to pre-pandemic levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaitila, Ville & Lehmus, Markku, 2021. "Post-Covid Recovery Scenarios for the Travel Industry," ETLA Brief 100, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:briefs:100
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Services; Transportation; Scenarios; Covid19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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