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Aging and the Macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Carlos Conesa

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Akshar Saxena

    (Harvard University)

  • Daniela Costa

    (Wharton)

  • Gajendran Raveendranathan

    (McMaster University)

  • Parisa Kamali

    (University of Minnesota)

  • Timothy Kehoe

    (University of Minnesota)

Abstract

This paper develops an overlapping generations model to study the macroeconomic implications of an aging population. We calibrate the model along a transition path from 1950 to 2100 that features rising survival probabilities, an increasing share of college graduates, and rising healthcare costs. The aging of the population leads to increased government spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security benefits. We find that the increase in the share of college graduates compensates for most of the increase in government spending. Consequently, taxes will only have to rise by a few percentage points to balance the budget in the future even if the current eligibility criteria and benefit levels for social insurance programs are preserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Conesa & Akshar Saxena & Daniela Costa & Gajendran Raveendranathan & Parisa Kamali & Timothy Kehoe, 2018. "Aging and the Macroeconomy," 2018 Meeting Papers 930, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:930
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeske, Karsten & Kitao, Sagiri, 2009. "U.S. tax policy and health insurance demand: Can a regressive policy improve welfare?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 210-221, March.
    2. Eric French, 2005. "The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 395-427.
    3. Conesa, Juan Carlos & Costa, Daniela & Kamali, Parisa & Kehoe, Timothy J. & Nygard, Vegard M. & Raveendranathan, Gajendran & Saxena, Akshar, 2018. "Macroeconomic effects of Medicare," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 27-40.
    4. Orazio Attanasio & Sagiri Kitao & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Financing Medicare: A General Equilibrium Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 333-366, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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