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The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy

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  • Levent Altinoglu

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

Abstract

I show that inter-firm lending plays an important role in business cycle fluctuations. I first build a tractable network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. In the model, a financial shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to its suppliers. The credit linkages between firms propagate financial shocks, amplifying their aggregate effects by about 30 percent. To calibrate the model, I construct a proxy of inter-industry credit flows from firm- and industry-level data. I then estimate aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to industries in the US and find that financial shocks are a prominent driver of cyclical fluctuations, accounting for two-thirds of the drop in industrial production during the Great Recession. Furthermore, idiosyncratic financial shocks to a few key industries can explain a considerable portion of these effects. In contrast, productivity shocks had a negligible impact during the recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Levent Altinoglu, 2018. "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," 2018 Meeting Papers 626, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Basile Grassi & Julien Sauvagnat, 2019. "Production networks and economic policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 638-677.
    2. Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik & Tomasz K. Michalski & Evren Ors, 2024. "Financial Constraints and Propagation of Shocks in Production Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 437-454, March.
    3. Shaowen Luo, 2020. "Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 246-269, April.
    4. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    5. Alan Finkelstein Shapiro & Andres Gonzalez Gomez & Jessica Roldan-Pena & Victoria Nuguer, 2018. "Price Dynamics and the Financing Structure of Firms in Emerging Economies," 2018 Meeting Papers 339, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Spiros Bougheas & David I Harvey & Alan Kirman & Douglas Nelson, 2024. "Systemic risk in banking, fire sales, and macroeconomic disasters," Discussion Papers 2024/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    7. Grzegorz Zimon & Robert Dankiewicz, 2020. "Trade Credit Management Strategies in SMEs and the COVID-19 Pandemic—A Case of Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-16, July.
    8. Domenico Delli Gatti & Elisa Grugni, 2022. "Breaking bad: supply chain disruptions in a streamlined agent-based model," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13-15), pages 1446-1473, October.

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