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The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy

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Abstract

I show that inter-firm lending plays an important role in business cycle fluctuations. I first build a tractable network model of the economy in which trade in intermediate goods is financed by supplier credit. In the model, a financial shock to one firm affects its ability to make payments to its suppliers. The credit linkages between firms propagate financial shocks, amplifying their aggregate effects by about 30 percent. To calibrate the model, I construct a proxy of inter-industry credit flows from firm- and industry-level data. I then estimate aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks to industries in the US and find that financial shocks are a prominent driver of cyclical fluctuations, accounting for two-thirds of the drop in industrial production during the Great Recession. Furthermore, idiosyncratic financial shocks to a few key industries can explain a considerable portion of these effects. In contrast, productivity shocks had a negligible impact during the recession.

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  • Levent Altinoglu, 2018. "The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-031, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-31
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.031
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    1. Shaowen Luo, 2020. "Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 36, pages 246-269, April.
    2. Yoshiyuki ARATA, 2020. "The Role of Granularity in the Variance and Tail Probability of Aggregate Output," Discussion papers 20027, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Credit network; Financial frictions; Great recession; Input-output network; Trade credit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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