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Quantitative Easing without Rational Expectations

Author

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  • Dmitriy Sergeyev

    (Bocconi University)

  • Luigi Iovino

    (Bocconi University)

Abstract

We study the effects of risky assets purchases financed by issuance of riskless debt by the government (quantitative easing) in a model with nominal frictions but without rational expectations. We use the concept of reflective equilibrium that converges to the rational expectations equilibrium in the limit. This equilibrium notion rationalizes the idea that it is difficult to change expectations about economic outcomes even if it is easy to shift expectations about the policy. Without additional assumptions about non-pecuniary demand for safe assets or segmentation of assets markets, we find that in the reflective equilibrium quantitative easing policy increases the price of risky assets and stimulates output, while it is neutral in the rational expectations equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Dmitriy Sergeyev & Luigi Iovino, 2017. "Quantitative Easing without Rational Expectations," 2017 Meeting Papers 1387, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1387
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
    2. Johannes Stroebel & John B. Taylor, 2012. "Estimated Impact of the Federal Reserve’s Mortgage-Backed Securities Purchase Program," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 1-42, June.
    3. Mariana García-Schmidt & Michael Woodford, 2019. "Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(1), pages 86-120, January.
    4. Andrew J Fieldhouse & Karel Mertens & Morten O Ravn, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Asset Purchases: Evidence from Postwar U.S. Housing Credit Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1503-1560.
    5. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
    6. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    7. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    8. Xavier Gabaix, 2020. "A Behavioral New Keynesian Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2271-2327, August.
    9. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-274, June.
    10. Arvind Krishnamurthy & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2011. "The Effects of Quantitative Easing on Interest Rates: Channels and Implications for Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 215-287.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bersson, Betsy & Hürtgen, Patrick & Paustian, Matthias, 2019. "Expectations formation, sticky prices, and the ZLB," Discussion Papers 34/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. George-Marios Angeletos & Karthik A. Sastry, 2018. "Managing Expectations: Instruments vs. Targets," NBER Working Papers 25404, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo & Karthik A. Sastry, 2021. "Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 1-86.
    4. George-Marios Angeletos & Karthik Sastry, 2019. "Managing Expectations without Rational Expectations," 2019 Meeting Papers 1537, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2017. "Dampening General Equilibrium: From Micro to Macro," NBER Working Papers 23379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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