IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed013/1308.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Debt Runs and the Market for Variable Rate Demand Obligations

Author

Listed:
  • Vivian Yue

    (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)

  • Bin Wei

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

A variable rate demand obligation (VRDO) is a tax-emept municipal bond whose interest rate resets on a periodic basis. In addition, its bondholders have a "tender" option to liquidate their positions at par, exposing the issuer to possible runs. The VRDO market experienced large-scale runs in 2008 during the financial crisis, which contributed to the largest municipal bankruptcy in history by Jefferson County in Alabama. In this paper we develop a dynamic model of VRDO and runs. In the model both the interest rate and the decision of creditors to run are endogenously determined in closed form. We show that a higher pre-specified maximum interest rate or a higher liquidity premium reduces the likelihood of run. We structurally estimate the model using the method of simulated maximum likelihood. The structural estimation allows us to compute the model-implied likelihood of run, to quantitatively assess different roles of liquidity and credit components, and to examine different contributing factors to the most recent episode of runs during the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivian Yue & Bin Wei, 2013. "Dynamic Debt Runs and the Market for Variable Rate Demand Obligations," 2013 Meeting Papers 1308, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2013/paper_1308.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    2. McConnell, John J. & Saretto, Alessio, 2010. "Auction failures and the market for auction rate securities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 451-469, September.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    4. Zhiguo He & Wei Xiong, 2012. "Dynamic Debt Runs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(6), pages 1799-1843.
    5. Gary Gorton, 2008. "The panic of 2007," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 131-262.
    6. Gary Gorton, 2009. "The Subprime Panic," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 10-46, January.
    7. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "How Debt Markets Have Malfunctioned in the Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    8. Song Han & Dan Li, 2009. "Liquidity, runs, and security design: lessons from the collapse of the auction rate municipal bond market," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jan.
    9. Jing-Zhi Huang & Ming Huang, 2012. "How Much of the Corporate-Treasury Yield Spread Is Due to Credit Risk?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 2(2), pages 153-202.
    10. Gary Gorton, 2009. "The Subprime Panic," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 15(1), pages 10-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhiguo He & Konstantin Milbradt, 2016. "Dynamic Debt Maturity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2677-2736.
    2. Xavier Vives, 2014. "Strategic Complementarity, Fragility, and Regulation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(12), pages 3547-3592.
    3. Cyril Durand & Marek Rutkowski, 2013. "CVA for Bilateral Counterparty Risk under Alternative Settlement Conventions," Papers 1307.6486, arXiv.org.
    4. Lawrence J. White, 2010. "Markets: The Credit Rating Agencies," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(2), pages 211-226, Spring.
    5. Olivier Blanchard, 2009. "The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms and Appropriate Policies," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(01), pages 3-14, April.
    6. Armen Hovakimian & Edward J. Kane & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Tracking Variation in Systemic Risk at US Banks During 1974-2013," NBER Working Papers 18043, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Roberto Robatto, 2015. "Financial Crises and Systemic Bank Runs in a Dynamic Model of Banking," 2015 Meeting Papers 483, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Javadi, Siamak & Mollagholamali, Mohsen, 2018. "Debt market illiquidity and correlated default risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 266-273.
    9. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, April.
    10. Photis Lysandrou & Anastasia Nesvetailova, 2013. "The Shadow Banking System and the Financial Crisis:A securities production function view," Working papers wpaper05, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    11. Luc Laeven, 2011. "Banking Crises: A Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 17-40, December.
    12. Deniz Igan & Prachi Mishra & Thierry Tressel, 2012. "A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 195-230.
    13. Rajdeep Sengupta & Yu Man Tam, 2010. "Why HARM the subprime borrower?," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Apr, pages 21-22.
    14. Kyunghun Kim & Ju Hyun Pyun & Jiyoun An, 2017. "Does Credit Market Integration Amplify the Transmission of Real Business Cycle During Financial Crisis?," 2017 Meeting Papers 1236, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Alvarez, Fernando & Barlevy, Gadi, 2021. "Mandatory disclosure and financial contagion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    16. Augusto de la Torre & Alain Ize, 2010. "Containing Systemic Risk: Paradigm-Based Perspectives on Regulatory Reform," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2010), pages 25-64, August.
    17. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Sunil Sharma, 2010. "A framework for financial market development," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 107-135.
    18. Anna Grodecka-Messi, 2019. "Subprime borrowers, securitization and the transmission of business cycles," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1600-1654, November.
    19. Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2010. "How Debt Markets Have Malfunctioned in the Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 3-28, Winter.
    20. Patrick Bolton & Tano Santos & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2011. "Outside and Inside Liquidity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 259-321.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1308. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.